Draw Duel
Alex Killorn faceoff stats, 2025-26
ANA · L · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
35.5%
90%: 31.0%–40.2% vs an average regular, on 197 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
33.3%
41 won of 123 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
48.1% / 21.3%
52 strong-side, 61 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.3 FOW
2026-10-04 vs FLA: 1 draws at 38.3%, range 0–1
Where Killorn wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 and 2024-25 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 35 | 19 | 54.3% |
| OZ right | 34 | 10 | 29.4% |
| NZ left (att.) | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 10 | 1 | 10.0% |
| Centre | 10 | 3 | 30.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| NZ right (def.) | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| DZ left | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
| DZ right | 30 | 7 | 23.3% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R27.8%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L28.7%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R28.8%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R29.2%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L29.5%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L29.7%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L48.2%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L47.9%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L46.7%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L45.1%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L44.8%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R44.5%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 33.3% 123 | 34.0% 97 | 75.0% 8 | 11.1% 18 | 41.4% 58 | 27.0% 37 | 25.0% 28 | 48.1% 52 | 21.3% 61 |
| 2024-25 | 38.1% 21 | 60.0% 10 | 25.0% 4 | 14.3% 7 | 45.5% 11 | — 0 | 30.0% 10 | 60.0% 5 | 31.3% 16 |
| 2023-24 | 35.9% 39 | 33.3% 30 | 42.9% 7 | 50.0% 2 | 35.7% 28 | 50.0% 4 | 28.6% 7 | 31.8% 22 | 38.5% 13 |
| Playoffs (all) | 14.3% 14 | 14.3% 14 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 8 | 100.0% 2 | 0.0% 4 | 25.0% 4 | 0.0% 9 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | 2–6 | 25.0% | 29.5% | 29.5% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Jack Eichel | 4–2 | 66.7% | 37.5% | 37.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Pavel Zacha | 1–3 | 25.0% | 27.6% | 27.6% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Ryan Donato | 0–4 | 0.0% | 41.5% | 41.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.7) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 2–2 | 50.0% | 34.7% | 34.8% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Robert Thomas | 1–3 | 25.0% | 33.9% | 33.8% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Anthony Cirelli | 2–2 | 50.0% | 27.6% | 27.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.0) |
| Marat Khusnutdinov | 1–2 | 33.3% | 33.0% | 33.0% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Mikael Backlund | 0–3 | 0.0% | 37.9% | 37.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Dalibor Dvorsky | 1–2 | 33.3% | 33.1% | 33.1% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Nico Hischier | 0–3 | 0.0% | 23.2% | 23.1% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Frederick Gaudreau | 1–2 | 33.3% | 39.0% | 39.0% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | vs VGK | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-04 | @ VGK | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-28 | @ EDM | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-26 | vs EDM | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-24 | vs EDM | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-22 | @ EDM | 0 | 3 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-20 | @ EDM | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-16 | @ NSH | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs SJS | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs NSH | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs FLA likely opponents: Anton Lundell (36%), Aleksander Barkov (34%)0.3 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-07 vs EDM likely opponents: Leon Draisaitl (35%), Owen Michaels (45%)0.3 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-09 vs WPG likely opponents: Adam Lowry (35%), Jonathan Toews (31%)0.3 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-10 vs CGY likely opponents: Mikael Backlund (37%), Morgan Frost (35%)0.3 FOW 0–1
FAQ
What is Alex Killorn's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Alex Killorn's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Alex Killorn win tonight?
When Alex Killorn has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Alex Killorn better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.