Who to start · 2026-27
Brock Nelson vs Michael McCarron
In 2026-27, Brock Nelson scored 1.59 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Michael McCarron's 1.59.
Nelson had 13 points in 21 games; McCarron had 9 in 21 games.
This week Nelson has no games left; McCarron has no games left.
Brock Nelson has the better number in 19 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Nelson's biggest edges: Top skating speed 22.9, Ice-time share 28.9%, Power-play points 4.
McCarron's biggest edges: Ascension score 83, Hits 62, Hardest shot 91.5.
Head to head on the dot, McCarron leads Nelson 30–22.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Michael McCarron rates ahead, +0.7 to +0.1 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Nelson is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 1.99 (was 3.20); McCarron is steady, +1:22 TOI a game.
- • Nelson, last 10 games (Oct 25–Nov 14): 3 G, 2 A, 1 PPP, 17 SOG.
- • McCarron has played 10 of the Wild's 11 games since Oct 24 (in and out of the lineup).
- • McCarron, last 10 games (Oct 24–Nov 14): 3 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 18 SOG.
Colorado Avalanche · Minnesota Wild · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Under Standard (6 categories), Michael McCarron has the edge (Nelson wins 3, McCarron wins 2 of 6 categories).
| Category | Nelson | McCarron |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| Assists / game | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.19 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal / game | 1.71 | 1.71 |
| Hits / game | 0.57 | 2.95 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Nelson vs McCarron
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Nelson 6G 4A, 32 SOG · McCarron 1G 2A, 24 SOG
Nelson's offensive zone 9–20 · neutral 8–4 · Nelson's defensive zone 5–6 (2023-24 to 2025-26)
Nelson blocked 0 of McCarron's shots; McCarron blocked 1 of Nelson's.
On the ice against each other (Nelson's side)
31:53 at 5-on-5 over 9 games, 2025-26, from Nelson's side
- Shot attempts
- 36–43
- 45.6%
- Expected goals
- 1.2–1.6
- 43.5%
- Goals
- 3–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Nelson | McCarron |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 · PO | COL 4–3 MIN | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2026-05-11 · PO | COL 5–2 MIN | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2026-05-09 · PO | COL 1–5 MIN | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2026-05-05 · PO | COL 5–2 MIN | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2026-05-03 · PO | COL 9–6 MIN | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2026-03-08 | COL 3–2 MIN | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2026-01-16 | COL 3–7 NSH | 2G 0A 4S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2025-12-13 | COL 4–2 NSH | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-12-09 | COL 3–4 NSH | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-11-22 | COL 3–0 NSH | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2025-03-01 | NYI 7–4 NSH | 2G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-04-06 | NYI 2–0 NSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 15 meetings.
Faceoffs: Nelson vs McCarron
Model: Brock Nelson wins 46.9% of draws against Michael McCarron on average (L shot vs R shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.
| Nelson at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 46% | 47% | 48% | 48% | 47% | 48% | 48% | 49% | 49% |
| Road | 45% | 45% | 46% | 46% | 47% | 46% | 46% | 47% | 47% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2025-26: Nelson 22–30 (42.3%). Blended with the model: 46.4%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z -0.7); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Nov 9 to Nov 15. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Brock Nelson
3games (0 left)
0.0proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Nov 10 @ TOROpp allows 16th-most FP to CLikely vs Sergei Bobrovsky (.881)
- Thu, Nov 12 @ OTTOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Linus Ullmark (.939)
- Sat, Nov 14 @ MTLOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.852)
Michael McCarron
3games (0 left)
0.0proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Nov 10 @ MTLOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Jacob Fowler (.926)
- Thu, Nov 12 @ TOROpp allows 16th-most FP to CLikely vs Anthony Stolarz (.905)
- Sat, Nov 14 @ BOSOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.906)
Player data stories
How the game changed, told through the numbers.
- In 2022-23, Four NHL Players Wore a Number in the 90s for Every One in No. 9 The count was 53 to 13, and the incomplete 2025-26 rosters show the same split, 51 to 12.
- The 1,000-Game Club Had Its Biggest Year. Getting In Is No Easier. Seventeen players reached 1,000 NHL games in 2025-26, more than in any season before, in the biggest league the NHL has had.
- Only 14 NHL Defencemen Still Score Like Ken Daneyko A stay-at-home defenceman stays back to defend and leaves the scoring to others.
- How Much Lighter Did the NHL Really Get? Teams write down NHL weights.
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brock Nelson or Michael McCarron in fantasy hockey?
- In 2026-27, Brock Nelson scored 1.59 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Michael McCarron's 1.59. Nelson had 13 points in 21 games; McCarron had 9 in 21 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brock Nelson or Michael McCarron?
- On 2026-27 numbers, Brock Nelson leads in 19 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Nelson and McCarron done against each other?
- In 15 games against each other in our data, Nelson's team went 9–6. Nelson had 10 points (6 goals) and McCarron had 3 (1 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Nelson or McCarron?
- Against each other, Nelson has won 22 and McCarron 30 of their 52 head-to-head draws.
2026-27 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →