Who to start · 2025-26
Brock Nelson vs Thomas Harley
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Thomas Harley's 1.82.
Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Harley had 36 in 70 games.
This week Nelson has 1 game left; Harley has 1 left. We project Harley for 1.8 ESPN points to Nelson's 1.6.
Brock Nelson has the better number in 28 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Nelson's biggest edges: Fenwick 57.3%, Corsi 57.5%, Scoring chances 58.3%.
Harley's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 0.36, Hits 39, Offensive-zone start % 49.3%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brock Nelson
2.23
fantasy points per game
Thomas Harley
1.82
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Brock Nelson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Nelson | Harley |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.89 | 0.16 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.38 | 0.99 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Nelson vs Harley
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Nelson 4G 8A, 40 SOG · Harley 3G 6A, 31 SOG
Nelson blocked 1 of Harley's shots; Harley blocked 4 of Nelson's.
On the ice against each other (Nelson's side)
29:02 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from Nelson's side
- Shot attempts
- 39–20
- 66.1%
- Expected goals
- 1.2–1.3
- 49.0%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Nelson | Harley |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | COL 2–0 DAL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-03-18 | COL 1–2 DAL | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2026-03-06 | COL 5–4 DAL | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-10-11 | COL 4–5 DAL | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2025-05-03 · PO | COL 2–4 DAL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-05-01 · PO | COL 7–4 DAL | 0G 2A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-04-28 · PO | COL 2–6 DAL | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2025-04-26 · PO | COL 4–0 DAL | 0G 2A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-04-23 · PO | COL 1–2 DAL | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2025-04-21 · PO | COL 3–4 DAL | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2025-04-19 · PO | COL 5–1 DAL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2025-03-16 | COL 4–3 DAL | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 18 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brock Nelson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAK
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL1.6 ptsSchedule edge +9.3 win%
Thomas Harley
2games (1 left)
1.8proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs STL
- Sat, Oct 3 @ NSHB2B1.8 ptsSchedule edge −9.3 win%
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brock Nelson or Thomas Harley in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Thomas Harley's 1.82. Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Harley had 36 in 70 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brock Nelson or Thomas Harley?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Brock Nelson leads in 28 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Nelson and Harley done against each other?
- In 18 games against each other in our data, Nelson's team went 9–9. Nelson had 12 points (4 goals) and Harley had 9 (3 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →