Who to start · 2025-26
Brock Nelson vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week Nelson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Toffoli for 1.5 ESPN points to Nelson's 1.3.
Brock Nelson has the better number in 29 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Nelson's biggest edges: Plus/minus +15, Faceoffs won 735, Forecheck xG /60 0.42.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 1.64, Luck Meter +14, Hardest shot 89.2.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brock Nelson
2.23
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Brock Nelson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Nelson | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.89 | 0.45 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.38 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Nelson vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Nelson 10G 4A, 50 SOG · Toffoli 5G 7A, 42 SOG
Nelson's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 1–0 · Nelson's defensive zone 0–1 (2017-18 to 2018-19)
Nelson blocked 1 of Toffoli's shots; Toffoli blocked 0 of Nelson's.
On the ice against each other (Nelson's side)
17:11 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Nelson's side
- Shot attempts
- 25–9
- 73.5%
- Expected goals
- 1.1–0.3
- 77.8%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Nelson | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | COL 4–2 SJS | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-11-26 | COL 6–0 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-11-01 | COL 2–3 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2024-03-23 | NYI 6–3 WPG | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-11-28 | NYI 4–5 NJD | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2023-10-20 | NYI 4–5 NJD | 2G 0A 5S | 1G 0A 5S |
| 2023-01-06 | NYI 1–4 CGY | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2022-11-07 | NYI 4–3 CGY | 0G 1A 6S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2021-11-04 | NYI 6–2 MTL | 4G 0A 7S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2020-03-10 | NYI 4–5 VAN | 2G 0A 6S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2020-02-06 | NYI 5–3 LAK | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2019-11-27 | NYI 1–4 LAK | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
Latest 12 of 16 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brock Nelson
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL1.3 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brock Nelson or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brock Nelson or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Brock Nelson leads in 29 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Nelson and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 16 games against each other in our data, Nelson's team went 9–7. Nelson had 14 points (10 goals) and Toffoli had 12 (5 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Nelson or Toffoli?
- Against each other, Nelson has won 1 and Toffoli 1 of their 2 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →