Who to start · 2025-26
Connor Bedard vs Leo Carlsson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor Bedard projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Leo Carlsson's 2.12.
Bedard had 75 points in 69 games; Carlsson had 67 in 70 games.
This week Bedard has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Carlsson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Bedard for 2.4 ESPN points to Carlsson's 1.6.
Connor Bedard has the better number in 20 of the 35 stats both are ranked on.
Bedard's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.005, Transition attempts /60 1.85, On-ice PDO 1008.
Carlsson's biggest edges: Fenwick 56.3%, Corsi 56.2%, Scoring chances 52.9%.
Head to head on the dot, Carlsson leads Bedard 14–9.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor Bedard
2.24
fantasy points per game
Leo Carlsson
2.02
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Connor Bedard has the edge.
| Points per game from | Bedard | Carlsson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.87 | 0.83 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Bedard vs Carlsson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Bedard 2G 10A, 30 SOG · Carlsson 5G 1A, 13 SOG
Bedard's offensive zone 1–4 · neutral 7–8 · Bedard's defensive zone 1–2 (2023-24 to 2025-26)
Bedard blocked 1 of Carlsson's shots; Carlsson blocked 0 of Bedard's.
On the ice against each other (Bedard's side)
21:17 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Bedard's side
- Shot attempts
- 22–27
- 44.9%
- Expected goals
- 1.2–1.2
- 50.6%
- Goals
- 1–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Bedard | Carlsson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | CHI 1–7 ANA | 0G 1A 1S | 2G 0A 4S |
| 2025-11-30 | CHI 5–3 ANA | 2G 2A 5S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2025-10-19 | CHI 2–1 ANA | 0G 1A 9S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-03-01 | CHI 6–3 ANA | 0G 0A 2S | 2G 0A 2S |
| 2024-11-19 | CHI 2–3 ANA | 0G 2A 1S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2024-11-03 | CHI 4–2 ANA | 0G 3A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-03-21 | CHI 0–4 ANA | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-12-07 | CHI 1–0 ANA | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Connor Bedard
3games (1 left)
2.4proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 @ VGKOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ UTAOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to CLikely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ BUF2.4 ptsOpp allows 5th-most FP to CSchedule edge −1.0 win%Likely vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.910)
Leo Carlsson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ VGKOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs FLA1.6 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor Bedard or Leo Carlsson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor Bedard projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Leo Carlsson's 2.12. Bedard had 75 points in 69 games; Carlsson had 67 in 70 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor Bedard or Leo Carlsson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor Bedard leads in 20 of 35 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Bedard and Carlsson done against each other?
- In 8 games against each other in our data, Bedard's team went 5–3. Bedard had 12 points (2 goals) and Carlsson had 6 (5 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Bedard or Carlsson?
- Against each other, Bedard has won 9 and Carlsson 14 of their 23 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →