Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McDavid vs Ivan Provorov
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ivan Provorov's 1.56.
McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Provorov had 31 in 82 games.
This week McDavid has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Provorov has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project McDavid for 2.3 ESPN points to Provorov's 1.1.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 27 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
McDavid's biggest edges: Offensive-zone time 47.7%, Offensive-zone start % 65.6%, Net penalties drawn /60 +1.05.
Provorov's biggest edges: Hardest shot 97.1, Blocked shots 134, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.060.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 6 A, 2 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McDavid
3.21
fantasy points per game
Ivan Provorov
1.56
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Connor McDavid has the edge.
| Points per game from | McDavid | Provorov |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 1.17 | 0.22 |
| Assists (+1) | 1.10 | 0.27 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.33 | 0.03 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.18 | 0.82 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: McDavid vs Provorov
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McDavid 11G 18A, 59 SOG · Provorov 1G 2A, 15 SOG
McDavid blocked 1 of Provorov's shots; Provorov blocked 1 of McDavid's.
On the ice against each other (McDavid's side)
19:43 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from McDavid's side
- Shot attempts
- 19–20
- 48.7%
- Expected goals
- 0.9–1.0
- 47.3%
- Goals
- 1–3
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McDavid | Provorov |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-13 | EDM 4–5 CBJ | 0G 2A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-11-10 | EDM 5–4 CBJ | 2G 0A 5S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2024-12-05 | EDM 6–3 CBJ | 0G 4A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-10-28 | EDM 1–6 CBJ | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-03-07 | EDM 2–4 CBJ | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-01-23 | EDM 4–1 CBJ | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-02-21 | EDM 4–2 PHI | 2G 1A 9S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-02-09 | EDM 1–2 PHI | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-03-01 | EDM 3–0 PHI | 1G 1A 7S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2021-10-27 | EDM 3–5 PHI | 1G 1A 9S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2019-10-16 | EDM 6–3 PHI | 1G 4A 1S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2019-02-02 | EDM 4–5 PHI | 1G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 15 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Connor McDavid
3games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs VANOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ VANOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs SEA2.3 ptsOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)
Ivan Provorov
2games (1 left)
1.1proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs BUFOpp allows 11th-most FP to DLikely vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.910)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs UTA1.1 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to DLikely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McDavid or Ivan Provorov in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ivan Provorov's 1.56. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Provorov had 31 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McDavid or Ivan Provorov?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 27 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McDavid and Provorov done against each other?
- In 15 games against each other in our data, McDavid's team went 7–8. McDavid had 29 points (11 goals) and Provorov had 3 (1 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →