Edgehalla

Who to start · 2026-27

Connor McDavid vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Connor McDavidOilers · Centre
vs
Jesperi KotkaniemiHurricanes · Centre
Rising18 P in last 5 (2.00/GP before)
SurgingOn-ice xGF/60 2.80 (was 1.98)

In 2026-27, Connor McDavid scored 5.14 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Jesperi Kotkaniemi's 1.12.

McDavid had 31 points in 10 games; Kotkaniemi had 5 in 10 games.

This week McDavid has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Kotkaniemi has 1 left. In ESPN default points scoring we project McDavid for 3.2 to Kotkaniemi's 0.9 over the games left.

Connor McDavid has the better number in 2 of the 2 stats both are ranked on.

McDavid's biggest edges: Ascension score 82, Luck Meter +88.

Head to head on the dot, Kotkaniemi leads McDavid 12–8.

Role trend over the last 5 games: McDavid is rising, 18 P in last 5 (2.00/GP before); Kotkaniemi is surging, On-ice xGF/60 2.80 (was 1.98).

  • • McDavid, last 10 games (Sep 29–Oct 22): 8 G, 23 A, 11 PPP, 25 SOG.
  • • Kotkaniemi, last 10 games (Oct 3–Oct 22): 2 G, 3 A, 0 PPP, 10 SOG.

Edmonton Oilers · Carolina Hurricanes · Who should I start? · Compare other players

Fantasy value: your scoring

Connor McDavid

0.0

category z-score total

Jesperi Kotkaniemi

0.0

category z-score total

Dead even under Standard (6 categories) (McDavid wins 0, Kotkaniemi wins 0 of 6 categories).

Per-stat breakdown under Standard (6 categories)
CategoryMcDavidKotkaniemi
Goals / game0.800.20
Assists / game2.300.30
Plus/minus / game1.800.40
Power-play points / game1.100.00
Shots on goal / game2.501.00
Hits / game1.401.20

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.

Head-to-head: McDavid vs Kotkaniemi

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2018-19 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

McDavidKotkaniemi
10Team record in 21 meetings11
35Points in those games5

McDavid 10G 25A, 59 SOG · Kotkaniemi 3G 2A, 37 SOG

8Faceoffs against each other12

McDavid's offensive zone 5–6 · neutral 0–2 · McDavid's defensive zone 3–4 (2018-19 to 2024-25)

1Hits on each other1
1Penalties drawn off the other1

On the ice against each other (McDavid's side)

3:33 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2026-27, from McDavid's side

Shot attempts
3–0
100.0%
Expected goals
0.0–0.0
100.0%
Goals
0–0

Games against each other

Games between Connor McDavid and Jesperi Kotkaniemi
DateScoreMcDavidKotkaniemi
2026-10-22EDM 6–5 CAR2G 3A 3S0G 0A 0S
2025-03-01EDM 3–1 CAR0G 1A 4S0G 0A 3S
2024-10-22EDM 2–3 CAR2G 0A 5S0G 1A 1S
2023-12-06EDM 6–1 CAR0G 3A 2S0G 0A 2S
2023-11-22EDM 3–6 CAR0G 1A 1S0G 0A 2S
2022-11-10EDM 2–7 CAR1G 1A 3S0G 0A 2S
2022-10-20EDM 6–4 CAR1G 3A 4S0G 0A 4S
2022-02-27EDM 1–2 CAR0G 0A 5S0G 0A 1S
2021-12-11EDM 1–3 CAR0G 0A 3S0G 0A 0S
2021-04-21EDM 3–4 MTL1G 2A 3S0G 1A 2S
2021-04-19EDM 4–1 MTL1G 2A 4S0G 0A 0S
2021-04-05EDM 2–3 MTL0G 0A 1S0G 0A 1S

Latest 12 of 21 meetings.

Faceoffs: McDavid vs Kotkaniemi

Model: Connor McDavid wins 50.2% of draws against Jesperi Kotkaniemi on average (L shot vs L shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.

Connor McDavid's predicted win % against Jesperi Kotkaniemi at each dot, in McDavid's attacking direction, at home and on the road.
McDavid atOZ leftOZ rightNZ left (att.)NZ right (att.)CentreNZ left (def.)NZ right (def.)DZ leftDZ right
Home59%40%60%41%50%60%41%62%42%
Road58%39%59%40%50%59%40%60%41%

Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2024-25: McDavid 2–5 (28.6%). Blended with the model: 49.9%. The record is a bit unusual for this matchup (z -1.1); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.

McDavid faceoffs · Kotkaniemi faceoffs · how the model works

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

McDavidKotkaniemi

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below

Every stat, side by side (continued)

McDavidKotkaniemi

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.

Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring

Edmonton Oilers logo

Connor McDavid

3games (1 left)

3.2proj. ESPN default pts

  • Tue, Oct 20 vs MIN
    Opp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.915)
  • Thu, Oct 22 vs CAR
    Opp allows 2nd-fewest FP to CLikely vs Brandon Bussi (.865)
  • Sat, Oct 24 vs TOR3.2 pts
    Opp allows 10th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge −2.7 win%Likely vs Sergei Bobrovsky (.895)
Carolina Hurricanes logo

Jesperi Kotkaniemi

3games (1 left)

0.9proj. ESPN default pts

  • Tue, Oct 20 @ VAN
    Opp allows 5th-most FP to CLikely vs Leevi Meriläinen (.917)
  • Thu, Oct 22 @ EDM
    Opp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Devon Levi (.887)
  • Sat, Oct 24 @ STL0.9 pts
    Opp allows 16th-most FP to CLikely vs Joel Hofer (.921)

FAQ

Should I start Connor McDavid or Jesperi Kotkaniemi in fantasy hockey?
In 2026-27, Connor McDavid scored 5.14 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Jesperi Kotkaniemi's 1.12. McDavid had 31 points in 10 games; Kotkaniemi had 5 in 10 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Connor McDavid or Jesperi Kotkaniemi?
On 2026-27 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 2 of 2 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have McDavid and Kotkaniemi done against each other?
In 21 games against each other in our data, McDavid's team went 10–11. McDavid had 35 points (10 goals) and Kotkaniemi had 5 (3 goals).
Who wins more faceoffs, McDavid or Kotkaniemi?
Against each other, McDavid has won 8 and Kotkaniemi 12 of their 20 head-to-head draws.

2026-27 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →