Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McDavid vs Warren Foegele
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Warren Foegele's 0.77.
McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Foegele had 17 in 68 games.
This week McDavid has 2 games left with 2 tough matchups; Foegele has 3 left with 1 soft and 2 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project McDavid for 6.1 to Foegele's 2.6 over the games left.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 29 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
McDavid's biggest edges: Assists 90, Ascension score 80, Offensive-zone time 47.7%.
Foegele's biggest edges: Hardest shot 91.9, Hits 74, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.025.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Connor McDavid rates ahead, +21.0 to -1.7 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: McDavid is rising, 14 P in last 5 (2.00/GP before); Foegele is cooling, ixG/60 0.81 (was 1.13).
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 6 G, 20 A, 8 PPP, 22 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 0 PPP, 8 SOG.
Edmonton Oilers · Ottawa Senators · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McDavid
+21.0
category z-score total
Warren Foegele
-1.7
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Connor McDavid has the edge (McDavid wins 5, Foegele wins 1 of 6 categories).
| Category | McDavid | Foegele |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.62 | 0.12 |
| Assists / game | 1.52 | 0.12 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.84 | 0.17 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.74 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal / game | 3.25 | 1.30 |
| Hits / game | 0.85 | 1.22 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: McDavid vs Foegele
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2018-19 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McDavid 5G 16A, 43 SOG · Foegele 3G 6A, 44 SOG
McDavid's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–0 · McDavid's defensive zone 2–0 (2024-25 to 2025-26)
McDavid blocked 1 of Foegele's shots; Foegele blocked 1 of McDavid's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice against each other (McDavid's side)
12:01 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from McDavid's side
- Shot attempts
- 7–10
- 41.2%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.1
- 64.5%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McDavid | Foegele |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | EDM 8–1 LAK | 1G 1A 3S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2026-01-10 | EDM 3–4 LAK | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2025-05-01 · PO | EDM 6–4 LAK | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-04-29 · PO | EDM 3–1 LAK | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 6S |
| 2025-04-27 · PO | EDM 4–3 LAK | 0G 2A 7S | 1G 0A 9S |
| 2025-04-25 · PO | EDM 7–4 LAK | 1G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-04-23 · PO | EDM 2–6 LAK | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2025-04-21 · PO | EDM 5–6 LAK | 1G 3A 3S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2025-01-13 | EDM 1–0 LAK | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2024-12-28 | EDM 3–4 LAK | 0G 1A 0S | 1G 2A 1S |
| 2019-12-10 | EDM 3–6 CAR | 0G 3A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2019-02-15 | EDM 1–3 CAR | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
Latest 12 of 13 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
Chemistry as teammates
How their expected-goal share at 5v5 changed together vs apart (shrunk for sample size), and how closely their DraftKings points moved game to game (raw, that season only; for forward linemates the typical value is about .28).
| Season | 5v5 min together | xG% lift | xGF/60 lift | DK correlation (raw) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 EDM | 102 | +0.6 | +0.09 | .35(−.66 to .91), 5 GP |
| 2022-23 EDM | 66 | +3.2 | +0.26 | – (too few games together) |
| 2021-22 EDM | 129 | +4.7 | +0.32 | .25(−.45 to .76), 8 GP |
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Connor McDavid
3games (2 left)
6.1proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs MINOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs CAR2.9 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 vs TOR3.2 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Sergei Bobrovsky (.877)
Warren Foegele
3games
2.6proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 vs FLA0.8 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs NYR0.8 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McDavid or Warren Foegele in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Warren Foegele's 0.77. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Foegele had 17 in 68 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McDavid or Warren Foegele?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 29 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McDavid and Foegele done against each other?
- In 13 games against each other in our data, McDavid's team went 6–7. McDavid had 21 points (5 goals) and Foegele had 9 (3 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, McDavid or Foegele?
- Against each other, McDavid has won 2 and Foegele 0 of their 2 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →