Who to start · 2025-26
Nathan MacKinnon vs Warren Foegele
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Warren Foegele's 0.77.
MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Foegele had 17 in 68 games.
This week MacKinnon has 2 games left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups; Foegele has 3 left with 1 soft and 2 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 5.9 to Foegele's 2.6 over the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 29 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Assists 74, Offensive-zone time 46.6%, Luck Meter +52.
Foegele's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.025, Forecheck xG /60 0.38, Hits 74.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to -1.7 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88); Foegele is cooling, ixG/60 0.81 (was 1.13).
- • 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 0 PPP, 8 SOG.
Colorado Avalanche · Ottawa Senators · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
+14.0
category z-score total
Warren Foegele
-1.7
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (MacKinnon wins 5, Foegele wins 1 of 6 categories).
| Category | MacKinnon | Foegele |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.64 | 0.12 |
| Assists / game | 0.96 | 0.12 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.43 | 0.17 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.30 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal / game | 4.38 | 1.30 |
| Hits / game | 0.68 | 1.22 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: MacKinnon vs Foegele
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2018-19 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
MacKinnon 10G 21A, 106 SOG · Foegele 4G 3A, 42 SOG
MacKinnon's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–0 · MacKinnon's defensive zone 1–2 (2025-26)
On the ice against each other (MacKinnon's side)
24:56 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from MacKinnon's side
- Shot attempts
- 43–19
- 69.4%
- Expected goals
- 2.4–0.8
- 75.4%
- Goals
- 2–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | MacKinnon | Foegele |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | COL 4–2 LAK | 1G 1A 8S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-12-29 | COL 5–2 LAK | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-10-07 | COL 4–1 LAK | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-03-27 | COL 4–0 LAK | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-11-13 | COL 4–2 LAK | 0G 3A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-04-18 | COL 5–1 EDM | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 0A 7S |
| 2024-04-05 | COL 2–6 EDM | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-03-16 | COL 3–2 EDM | 0G 1A 6S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2023-04-11 | COL 1–2 EDM | 0G 0A 7S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2023-02-19 | COL 6–5 EDM | 1G 2A 9S | 2G 0A 3S |
| 2022-06-06 · PO | COL 6–5 EDM | 1G 0A 7S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-06-04 · PO | COL 4–2 EDM | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 21 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (2 left)
5.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 10th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.4 pts
Warren Foegele
3games
2.6proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 vs FLA0.8 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs NYR0.8 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Nathan MacKinnon or Warren Foegele in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Warren Foegele's 0.77. MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Foegele had 17 in 68 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Nathan MacKinnon or Warren Foegele?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 29 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have MacKinnon and Foegele done against each other?
- In 21 games against each other in our data, MacKinnon's team went 16–5. MacKinnon had 31 points (10 goals) and Foegele had 7 (4 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, MacKinnon or Foegele?
- Against each other, MacKinnon has won 1 and Foegele 2 of their 3 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →