Edgehalla

Who to start · 2025-26

Connor McDavid vs Zach Metsa

Connor McDavidOilers · Centre
vs
Zach MetsaSabres · Defence
Rising14 P in last 5 (2.00/GP before)
SteadyLine Watch: moved up a line Oct 12

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Zach Metsa's 0.73.

McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Metsa had 6 in 43 games.

This week McDavid has 2 games left with 2 tough matchups; Metsa has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project McDavid for 6.1 to Metsa's 1.5 over the games left.

Connor McDavid has the better number in 29 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

McDavid's biggest edges: Ice time per game 22:59, Ice-time share 37.9%, Shots on goal 306.

Metsa's biggest edges: On-ice PDO 1091, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.044, Hardest shot 92.0.

In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Connor McDavid rates ahead, +21.0 to -3.7 in summed category z-scores.

Role trend over the last 5 games: McDavid is rising, 14 P in last 5 (2.00/GP before); Metsa is steady, Line Watch: moved up a line Oct 12.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 6 G, 20 A, 8 PPP, 22 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.

Edmonton Oilers · Buffalo Sabres · Who should I start? · Compare other players

Fantasy value: your scoring

Connor McDavid

+21.0

category z-score total

Zach Metsa

-3.7

category z-score total

Under Standard (6 categories), Connor McDavid has the edge (McDavid wins 6, Metsa wins 0 of 6 categories).

Per-stat breakdown under Standard (6 categories)
CategoryMcDavidMetsa
Goals / game0.620.03
Assists / game1.520.14
Plus/minus / game0.840.19
Power-play points / game0.740.00
Shots on goal / game3.250.47
Hits / game0.850.11

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.

Head-to-head

Connor McDavid and Zach Metsa have no head-to-head events in our data yet (regular season and playoffs since 2019-20).

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

McDavidMetsa

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.

Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring

Edmonton Oilers logo

Connor McDavid

3games (2 left)

6.1proj. ESPN default pts

  • Tue, Oct 20 vs MIN
    Opp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
  • Thu, Oct 22 vs CAR2.9 pts
    Opp allows 2nd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge −3.0 win%Likely vs Brandon Bussi (.895)
  • Sat, Oct 24 vs TOR3.2 pts
    Opp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Sergei Bobrovsky (.877)
Buffalo Sabres logo

Zach Metsa

2games

1.5proj. ESPN default pts

  • Wed, Oct 21 vs PHI0.8 pts
    Opp allows 4th-most FP to DSchedule edge +4.1 win%vs Dan Vladar (.906)
  • Sat, Oct 24 @ WSH0.7 pts
    Opp allows 10th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Connor McDavid or Zach Metsa in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Zach Metsa's 0.73. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Metsa had 6 in 43 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Connor McDavid or Zach Metsa?
On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 29 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →