Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McMichael vs Pavel Buchnevich
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Pavel Buchnevich projects to 1.36 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Connor McMichael's 1.32.
McMichael had 46 points in 78 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games.
This week McMichael has 3 games left with 2 tough matchups; Buchnevich has 3 left with 2 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project McMichael for 3.6 to Buchnevich's 3.5 over the games left.
Pavel Buchnevich has the better number in 20 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
McMichael's biggest edges: Top skating speed 23.0, Plus/minus +8, 20+ mph bursts 174.
Buchnevich's biggest edges: Offensive-zone time 42.9%, Forecheck xG /60 0.31, Ascension score 71.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Pavel Buchnevich rates ahead, +0.4 to -0.4 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: McMichael is steady, ixG/60 0.46 (was 0.99); Buchnevich is surging, ixG/60 1.13 (was 0.74).
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 2 G, 4 A, 2 PPP, 12 SOG.
- • Buchnevich has played 8 of the Blues' 9 games since Oct 2 (in and out of the lineup).
- • 2026-27 so far: 8 GP, 1 G, 4 A, 2 PPP, 13 SOG.
St. Louis Blues · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McMichael
-0.4
category z-score total
Pavel Buchnevich
+0.4
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Pavel Buchnevich has the edge (McMichael wins 2, Buchnevich wins 4 of 6 categories).
| Category | McMichael | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Assists / game | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| Plus/minus / game | -0.10 | -0.04 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| Shots on goal / game | 1.64 | 1.71 |
| Hits / game | 0.49 | 0.37 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: McMichael vs Buchnevich
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McMichael 3G 1A, 11 SOG · Buchnevich 1G 4A, 17 SOG
McMichael's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–0 · McMichael's defensive zone 2–0 (2023-24 to 2025-26)
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice against each other (McMichael's side)
12:11 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from McMichael's side
- Shot attempts
- 10–15
- 40.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.6
- 33.3%
- Goals
- 0–0
On the ice together
14:26 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2026-27
- Shot attempts
- 16–9
- 64.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.3
- 51.0%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McMichael | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | WSH 0–3 STL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-11-05 | WSH 6–1 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-02-27 | WSH 2–5 STL | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 2A 4S |
| 2024-11-09 | WSH 8–1 STL | 2G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-01-20 | WSH 0–3 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2024-01-18 | WSH 5–2 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-11-17 | WSH 4–5 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2022-03-22 | WSH 2–5 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
Faceoffs: McMichael vs Buchnevich
Model: Connor McMichael wins 54.3% of draws against Pavel Buchnevich on average (L shot vs L shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.
| McMichael at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 58% | 50% | 59% | 51% | 55% | 59% | 51% | 60% | 52% |
| Road | 57% | 48% | 58% | 50% | 54% | 58% | 50% | 59% | 51% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2025-26: McMichael 2–0 (100.0%). Blended with the model: 54.5%. The record is a bit unusual for this matchup (z 1.3); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
McMichael faceoffs · Buchnevich faceoffs · how the model works
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Connor McMichael
3games
3.6proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs WPG1.3 ptsOpp allows 13th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs VGK1.2 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs CAR1.2 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)
Pavel Buchnevich
3games
3.5proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs WPG1.3 ptsOpp allows 13th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs VGK1.1 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs CAR1.1 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McMichael or Pavel Buchnevich in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Pavel Buchnevich projects to 1.36 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Connor McMichael's 1.32. McMichael had 46 points in 78 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McMichael or Pavel Buchnevich?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Pavel Buchnevich leads in 20 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McMichael and Buchnevich done against each other?
- In 8 games against each other in our data, McMichael's team went 3–5. McMichael had 4 points (3 goals) and Buchnevich had 5 (1 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, McMichael or Buchnevich?
- Against each other, McMichael has won 2 and Buchnevich 0 of their 2 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →