Who to start · 2025-26
Devon Toews vs Nathan MacKinnon
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.15 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Devon Toews's 1.40.
Toews had 24 points in 68 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.
This week Toews has 3 games left with 1 soft matchup; MacKinnon has 3 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 9.1 to Toews's 4.5 over the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 23 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Toews's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.039, Forecheck xG /60 0.45, High-danger chances 56.8%.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Goals above expected +4.3, Luck Meter +52, Goals 53.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.9 to +5.2 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Toews is steady, On-ice xGF/60 2.74 (was 3.77); MacKinnon is steady, On-ice xGF/60 3.02 (was 3.76).
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 2 G, 5 A, 3 PPP, 12 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 39 SOG.
Colorado Avalanche · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Devon Toews
+5.2
category z-score total
Nathan MacKinnon
+14.9
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (Toews wins 1, MacKinnon wins 5 of 6 categories).
| Category | Toews | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.11 | 0.66 |
| Assists / game | 0.40 | 0.99 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.13 | 0.32 |
| Shots on goal / game | 1.56 | 4.36 |
| Hits / game | 0.45 | 0.58 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Toews vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2018-19 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Toews 0G 1A, 9 SOG · MacKinnon 0G 2A, 12 SOG
Toews blocked 4 of MacKinnon's shots; MacKinnon blocked 3 of Toews's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice together
809:56 at 5-on-5 over 88 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27
- Shot attempts
- 1072–711
- 60.1%
- Expected goals
- 53.2–29.5
- 64.4%
- Goals
- 57–21
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Toews | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-19 | NYI 1–3 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2020-01-06 | NYI 1–0 COL | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 7S |
| 2019-02-09 | NYI 4–3 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
Chemistry as teammates
How their expected-goal share at 5v5 changed together vs apart (shrunk for sample size), and how closely their DraftKings points moved game to game (raw, that season only; for forward linemates the typical value is about .28).
| Season | 5v5 min together | xG% lift | xGF/60 lift | DK correlation (raw) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 COL | 83 | +3.9 | +0.16 | .16(−.47 to .68), 9 GP |
| 2025-26 COL | 591 | +7.8 | +0.72 | .30(.10 to .49), 61 GP |
| 2024-25 COL | 846 | +6.3 | +0.39 | .09(−.10 to .28), 74 GP |
| 2023-24 COL | 907 | +5.7 | +0.15 | .18(−.00 to .35), 82 GP |
| 2022-23 COL | 716 | −0.4 | +0.18 | .35(.17 to .52), 68 GP |
| 2021-22 COL | 505 | −0.5 | +0.20 | .16(−.08 to .38), 50 GP |
| 2020-21 COL | 375 | −0.2 | +0.04 | .29(.04 to .51), 42 GP |
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Devon Toews
4games (3 left)
4.5proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 4th-most FP to DLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL1.4 ptsOpp allows 11th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH1.5 pts
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (3 left)
9.1proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 11th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.5 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Devon Toews or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.15 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Devon Toews's 1.40. Toews had 24 points in 68 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Devon Toews or Nathan MacKinnon?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 23 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Toews and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 3 games against each other in our data, Toews's team went 2–1. Toews had 1 points (0 goals) and MacKinnon had 2 (0 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →