Should I start Jesperi Kotkaniemi or Nic Dowd in fantasy hockey?

In 2026-27, Jesperi Kotkaniemi scored 1.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Nic Dowd's 0.67. Kotkaniemi had 5 points in 10 games; Dowd had 2 in 12 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.

Who is better, Jesperi Kotkaniemi or Nic Dowd?

On 2026-27 numbers, Jesperi Kotkaniemi leads in 2 of 2 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.

How have Kotkaniemi and Dowd done against each other?

In 22 games against each other in our data, Kotkaniemi's team went 10–12. Kotkaniemi had 11 points (3 goals) and Dowd had 4 (2 goals).

Who wins more faceoffs, Kotkaniemi or Dowd?

Against each other, Kotkaniemi has won 25 and Dowd 37 of their 62 head-to-head draws.

Who to start · 2026-27

Jesperi Kotkaniemi vs Nic Dowd

Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Hurricanes · Centre

Nic Dowd

Golden Knights · Centre

SurgingOn-ice xGF/60 2.80 (was 1.98)

SteadyixG/60 0.06 (was 0.47)

In 2026-27, Jesperi Kotkaniemi scored 1.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Nic Dowd's 0.67.

Kotkaniemi had 5 points in 10 games; Dowd had 2 in 12 games.

This week Kotkaniemi has 1 game left; Dowd has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. In ESPN default points scoring we project Kotkaniemi for 0.9 to Dowd's 0.9 over the games left.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi has the better number in 2 of the 2 stats both are ranked on.

Kotkaniemi's biggest edges: Luck Meter +69, Ascension score 70.

Head to head on the dot, Dowd leads Kotkaniemi 37–25.

Role trend over the last 5 games: Kotkaniemi is surging, On-ice xGF/60 2.80 (was 1.98); Dowd is steady, ixG/60 0.06 (was 0.47).

• Kotkaniemi, last 10 games (Oct 3–Oct 22): 2 G, 3 A, 0 PPP, 10 SOG.
• Dowd, last 10 games (Oct 4–Oct 22): 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.

Carolina Hurricanes · Vegas Golden Knights · Who should I start? · Compare other players

Fantasy value: your scoring

Jesperi Kotkaniemi

0.0

category z-score total

Nic Dowd

0.0

category z-score total

Dead even under Standard (6 categories) (Kotkaniemi wins 0, Dowd wins 0 of 6 categories).

Per-stat breakdown under Standard (6 categories)
Category	Kotkaniemi	Dowd
Goals / game	0.20	0.00
Assists / game	0.30	0.17
Plus/minus / game	0.40	-0.42
Power-play points / game	0.00	0.00
Shots on goal / game	1.00	0.33
Hits / game	1.20	1.83

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.

Head-to-head: Kotkaniemi vs Dowd

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2018-19 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

KotkaniemiDowd

10Team record in 22 meetings12

11Points in those games4

Kotkaniemi 3G 8A, 39 SOG · Dowd 2G 2A, 17 SOG

25Faceoffs against each other37

Kotkaniemi's offensive zone 16–21 · neutral 9–15 · Kotkaniemi's defensive zone 0–1 (2018-19 to 2025-26)

4Hits on each other6

0Shots blocked by the other1

Kotkaniemi blocked 0 of Dowd's shots; Dowd blocked 1 of Kotkaniemi's.

On the ice against each other (Kotkaniemi's side)

8:35 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Kotkaniemi's side

Shot attempts: 6–6; 50.0%
Expected goals: 0.3–0.2; 60.0%
Goals: 0–0

Games against each other

Games between Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Nic Dowd
Date	Score	Kotkaniemi	Dowd
2026-01-31	CAR 3–4 WSH	0G 1A 1S	0G 0A 2S
2025-11-11	CAR 1–4 WSH	0G 0A 1S	0G 1A 1S
2025-05-15 · PO	CAR 3–1 WSH	0G 0A 1S	0G 0A 0S
2025-05-12 · PO	CAR 5–2 WSH	0G 1A 1S	0G 0A 0S
2025-05-10 · PO	CAR 4–0 WSH	0G 0A 2S	0G 0A 2S
2025-05-08 · PO	CAR 1–3 WSH	0G 0A 0S	0G 0A 1S
2025-05-06 · PO	CAR 2–1 WSH	0G 1A 1S	0G 0A 0S
2025-04-02	CAR 5–1 WSH	0G 0A 2S	0G 0A 0S
2024-12-20	CAR 1–3 WSH	0G 0A 0S	0G 0A 0S
2024-11-03	CAR 4–2 WSH	0G 1A 3S	0G 1A 1S
2024-04-05	CAR 4–2 WSH	0G 0A 1S	0G 0A 0S
2024-03-22	CAR 6–7 WSH	0G 1A 0S	0G 0A 1S

Latest 12 of 22 meetings.

Faceoffs: Kotkaniemi vs Dowd

Model: Jesperi Kotkaniemi wins 48.5% of draws against Nic Dowd on average (L shot vs R shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi's predicted win % against Nic Dowd at each dot, in Kotkaniemi's attacking direction, at home and on the road.
Kotkaniemi at	OZ left	OZ right	NZ left (att.)	NZ right (att.)	Centre	NZ left (def.)	NZ right (def.)	DZ left	DZ right
Home	50%	46%	51%	47%	49%	51%	47%	52%	48%
Road	49%	45%	50%	46%	48%	50%	46%	51%	47%

Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2025-26: Kotkaniemi 18–30 (37.5%). Blended with the model: 47.5%. The record is a bit unusual for this matchup (z -1.5); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.

Kotkaniemi faceoffs · Dowd faceoffs · how the model works

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

KotkaniemiDowd

Fantasy box score

10
Games played
12
2
Goals
0
3
Assists
2
5
Points
2
0
Power-play points
0
0
Shorthanded points
0
10
Shots on goal
4
12
Hits
22
4
Blocked shots
7
+4
Plus/minus
−5
6
Penalty minutes
9
19
Faceoffs won
58

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below

Every stat, side by side (continued)

KotkaniemiDowd

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

−0.51
Net penalties drawn /60
+0.41

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.

Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring

Jesperi Kotkaniemi

3games (1 left)

0.9proj. ESPN default pts

Tue, Oct 20 @ VAN
Opp allows 5th-most FP to CLikely vs Leevi Meriläinen (.917)
Thu, Oct 22 @ EDM
Opp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Devon Levi (.887)
Sat, Oct 24 @ STL0.9 pts
Opp allows 16th-most FP to CLikely vs Joel Hofer (.921)

Nic Dowd

3games (1 left)

0.9proj. ESPN default pts

Tue, Oct 20 vs TBL
Opp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.898)
Thu, Oct 22 @ STL
Opp allows 16th-most FP to CSchedule edge −1.0 win%Likely vs Joel Hofer (.921)
Sat, Oct 24 @ CBJ0.9 pts
Opp allows 3rd-most FP to CLikely vs Jet Greaves (.883)

FAQ

Should I start Jesperi Kotkaniemi or Nic Dowd in fantasy hockey?: In 2026-27, Jesperi Kotkaniemi scored 1.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Nic Dowd's 0.67. Kotkaniemi had 5 points in 10 games; Dowd had 2 in 12 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Jesperi Kotkaniemi or Nic Dowd?: On 2026-27 numbers, Jesperi Kotkaniemi leads in 2 of 2 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Kotkaniemi and Dowd done against each other?: In 22 games against each other in our data, Kotkaniemi's team went 10–12. Kotkaniemi had 11 points (3 goals) and Dowd had 4 (2 goals).
Who wins more faceoffs, Kotkaniemi or Dowd?: Against each other, Kotkaniemi has won 25 and Dowd 37 of their 62 head-to-head draws.

2026-27 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →