Edgehalla

Who to start · 2025-26

Kaapo Kakko vs Nathan MacKinnon

Kaapo KakkoKraken · Right wing
vs
Nathan MacKinnonAvalanche · Centre
Cooling0% of 5v5 TOI with top players (was 63%)
CoolingOn-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88)

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Kaapo Kakko's 1.22.

Kakko had 40 points in 65 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.

This week Kakko has 2 games left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups; MacKinnon has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 6.0 to Kakko's 2.4 over the games left.

Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 29 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

Kakko's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.048, Ascension score 62, Luck Meter +75.

MacKinnon's biggest edges: 20+ mph bursts 455, Top skating speed 24.8, Scoring chances 59.3%.

In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to +1.0 in summed category z-scores.

Role trend over the last 5 games: Kakko is cooling, 0% of 5v5 TOI with top players (was 63%); MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88).

  • • 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 2 G, 6 A, 1 PPP, 8 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.

Seattle Kraken · Colorado Avalanche · Who should I start? · Compare other players

Fantasy value: your scoring

Kaapo Kakko

+1.0

category z-score total

Nathan MacKinnon

+14.0

category z-score total

Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (Kakko wins 0, MacKinnon wins 6 of 6 categories).

Per-stat breakdown under Standard (6 categories)
CategoryKakkoMacKinnon
Goals / game0.200.64
Assists / game0.490.96
Plus/minus / game0.250.43
Power-play points / game0.110.30
Shots on goal / game1.044.38
Hits / game0.560.68

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.

Head-to-head: Kakko vs MacKinnon

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2019-20 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

KakkoMacKinnon
3Team record in 9 meetings6
3Points in those games15

Kakko 2G 1A, 14 SOG · MacKinnon 6G 9A, 42 SOG

1Faceoffs against each other0

Kakko's offensive zone 1–0 · neutral 0–0 · Kakko's defensive zone 0–0 (2025-26)

0Hits on each other1
1Shots blocked by the other1

Kakko blocked 1 of MacKinnon's shots; MacKinnon blocked 1 of Kakko's.

On the ice against each other (Kakko's side)

7:43 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Kakko's side

Shot attempts
12–6
66.7%
Expected goals
0.6–0.1
82.5%
Goals
0–0

Games against each other

Games between Kaapo Kakko and Nathan MacKinnon
DateScoreKakkoMacKinnon
2026-03-12SEA 1–5 COL0G 0A 0S1G 3A 4S
2025-12-16SEA 3–5 COL0G 1A 2S2G 1A 6S
2024-12-22SEA 2–5 COL1G 0A 3S0G 2A 2S
2024-03-28NYR 3–2 COL1G 0A 1S0G 0A 5S
2024-02-05NYR 2–1 COL0G 0A 1S1G 0A 7S
2022-10-25NYR 2–3 COL0G 0A 2S0G 1A 5S
2021-12-14NYR 2–4 COL0G 0A 2S0G 2A 5S
2021-12-08NYR 3–7 COL0G 0A 3S1G 0A 5S
2020-01-07NYR 5–3 COL0G 0A 0S1G 0A 3S

Faceoffs: Kakko vs MacKinnon

Model: Kaapo Kakko wins 44.5% of draws against Nathan MacKinnon on average (L shot vs R shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.

Kaapo Kakko's predicted win % against Nathan MacKinnon at each dot, in Kakko's attacking direction, at home and on the road.
Kakko atOZ leftOZ rightNZ left (att.)NZ right (att.)CentreNZ left (def.)NZ right (def.)DZ leftDZ right
Home43%45%44%46%45%44%46%45%47%
Road42%43%43%45%44%43%45%44%46%

Head-to-head 2025-26: Kakko 1–0 (100.0%). Blended with the model: 44.6%. The record is a bit unusual for this matchup (z 1.1); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.

Kakko faceoffs · MacKinnon faceoffs · how the model works

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

KakkoMacKinnon

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.

Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring

Kaapo Kakko

3games (2 left)

2.4proj. ESPN default pts

Nathan MacKinnon

4games (2 left)

6.0proj. ESPN default pts

  • Mon, Oct 19 @ PHI
    Opp allows 11th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
  • Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
    Opp allows 16th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jake Allen (.904)
  • Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 pts
    Opp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
  • Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.5 pts
    Opp allows 9th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Juuse Saros (.893)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Kaapo Kakko or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Kaapo Kakko's 1.22. Kakko had 40 points in 65 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Kaapo Kakko or Nathan MacKinnon?
On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 29 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Kakko and MacKinnon done against each other?
In 9 games against each other in our data, Kakko's team went 3–6. Kakko had 3 points (2 goals) and MacKinnon had 15 (6 goals).
Who wins more faceoffs, Kakko or MacKinnon?
Against each other, Kakko has won 1 and MacKinnon 0 of their 1 head-to-head draws.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →