Who to start · 2025-26
Mathew Dumba vs Nathan MacKinnon
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mathew Dumba's 1.12.
Dumba had 3 points in 11 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.
This week Dumba has 2 games left; MacKinnon has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 5.9 to Dumba's 2.2 over the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 1 of the 1 stats both are ranked on.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Luck Meter +52.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to -3.3 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Dumba has no recent trend; MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88).
- • 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.
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Fantasy value: your scoring
Mathew Dumba
-3.3
category z-score total
Nathan MacKinnon
+16.2
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (Dumba wins 1, MacKinnon wins 5 of 6 categories).
| Category | Dumba | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.09 | 0.66 |
| Assists / game | 0.18 | 0.93 |
| Plus/minus / game | -0.45 | 0.71 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Shots on goal / game | 0.64 | 4.38 |
| Hits / game | 1.45 | 0.80 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Dumba vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2024-25: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Dumba 2G 8A, 48 SOG · MacKinnon 16G 25A, 121 SOG
Dumba blocked 9 of MacKinnon's shots; MacKinnon blocked 0 of Dumba's.
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Dumba | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-16 | DAL 3–4 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2025-01-18 | DAL 3–6 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2024-02-18 | ARI 3–4 COL | 1G 1A 2S | 1G 1A 9S |
| 2023-12-27 | ARI 5–4 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2023-12-23 | ARI 1–4 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2023-11-30 | ARI 4–3 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 7S |
| 2023-03-29 | MIN 4–2 COL | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2023-02-15 | MIN 2–3 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 6S |
| 2022-10-17 | MIN 3–6 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 2A 7S |
| 2022-03-27 | MIN 3–2 COL | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-01-17 | MIN 3–4 COL | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 1A 6S |
| 2021-10-30 | MIN 1–4 COL | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 2A 5S |
Latest 12 of 27 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Mathew Dumba
3games (2 left)
2.2proj. ESPN default pts (season rate)
- Mon, Oct 19 @ UTAOpp allows 15th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Sebastian Cossa (.816)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs FLA1.1 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 vs NSH1.1 ptsOpp allows 15th-most FP to DLikely vs Juuse Saros (.893)
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (2 left)
5.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 10th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.4 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mathew Dumba or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mathew Dumba's 1.12. Dumba had 3 points in 11 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mathew Dumba or Nathan MacKinnon?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 1 of 1 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Dumba and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 27 games against each other in our data, Dumba's team went 10–17. Dumba had 10 points (2 goals) and MacKinnon had 41 (16 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →