Who to start · 2025-26
Mathew Dumba vs Nikita Kucherov
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nikita Kucherov projects to 2.87 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mathew Dumba's 1.12.
Dumba had 3 points in 11 games; Kucherov had 130 in 76 games.
This week Dumba has 2 games left; Kucherov has 2 left with 1 soft matchup. In ESPN default points scoring we project Kucherov for 5.7 to Dumba's 2.2 over the games left.
Nikita Kucherov has the better number in 1 of the 1 stats both are ranked on.
Kucherov's biggest edges: Luck Meter +54.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nikita Kucherov rates ahead, +13.3 to -3.3 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Dumba has no recent trend; Kucherov is steady, 63% of team PP time (was 72%).
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 4 G, 9 A, 4 PPP, 26 SOG.
Pittsburgh Penguins · Tampa Bay Lightning · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Mathew Dumba
-3.3
category z-score total
Nikita Kucherov
+14.5
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nikita Kucherov has the edge (Dumba wins 1, Kucherov wins 5 of 6 categories).
| Category | Dumba | Kucherov |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.09 | 0.58 |
| Assists / game | 0.18 | 1.13 |
| Plus/minus / game | -0.45 | 0.57 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Shots on goal / game | 0.64 | 3.04 |
| Hits / game | 1.45 | 0.47 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Dumba vs Kucherov
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2024-25: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Dumba 0G 1A, 15 SOG · Kucherov 4G 6A, 31 SOG
Dumba blocked 1 of Kucherov's shots; Kucherov blocked 0 of Dumba's.
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Dumba | Kucherov |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-20 | DAL 2–3 TBL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-11-23 | DAL 4–2 TBL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-11-28 | ARI 3–1 TBL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 5S |
| 2023-01-24 | MIN 2–4 TBL | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2023-01-04 | MIN 5–1 TBL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 5S |
| 2020-01-16 | MIN 3–2 TBL | 0G 0A 2S | 2G 0A 3S |
| 2019-12-05 | MIN 5–4 TBL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2018-10-20 | MIN 5–4 TBL | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2018-01-20 | MIN 5–2 TBL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2017-12-23 | MIN 0–3 TBL | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 3S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
Chemistry as teammates
How their expected-goal share at 5v5 changed together vs apart (shrunk for sample size), and how closely their DraftKings points moved game to game (raw, that season only; for forward linemates the typical value is about .28).
| Season | 5v5 min together | xG% lift | xGF/60 lift | DK correlation (raw) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 TBL | 56 | +0.1 | +0.16 | – (too few games together) |
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Mathew Dumba
3games (2 left)
2.2proj. ESPN default pts (season rate)
- Mon, Oct 19 @ UTAOpp allows 15th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Sebastian Cossa (.816)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs FLA1.1 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 vs NSH1.1 ptsOpp allows 15th-most FP to DLikely vs Juuse Saros (.893)
Nikita Kucherov
3games (2 left)
5.7proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 @ VGKOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Fri, Oct 23 @ COL2.6 ptsOpp allows 13th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Scott Wedgewood (.921)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mathew Dumba or Nikita Kucherov in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nikita Kucherov projects to 2.87 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mathew Dumba's 1.12. Dumba had 3 points in 11 games; Kucherov had 130 in 76 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mathew Dumba or Nikita Kucherov?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nikita Kucherov leads in 1 of 1 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Dumba and Kucherov done against each other?
- In 10 games against each other in our data, Dumba's team went 7–3. Dumba had 1 points (0 goals) and Kucherov had 10 (4 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →