Who to start · 2025-26
Matt Grzelcyk vs Mattias Samuelsson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mattias Samuelsson projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Matt Grzelcyk's 0.72.
Grzelcyk had 12 points in 69 games; Samuelsson had 41 in 78 games.
This week Grzelcyk has 2 games left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups; Samuelsson has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project Samuelsson for 3.4 to Grzelcyk's 1.7 over the games left.
Mattias Samuelsson has the better number in 26 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Grzelcyk's biggest edges: Power-play share 30.8%, Offensive-zone start % 54.9%, Power-play time per game 0:51.
Samuelsson's biggest edges: Luck Meter +79, Goals above expected +4.6, Goals 13.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Mattias Samuelsson rates ahead, +4.9 to -4.2 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Grzelcyk is cooling, −2:22 TOI a game; Samuelsson is surging, 5 P in last 5 (0.40/GP before).
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 2 G, 5 A, 0 PPP, 13 SOG.
Buffalo Sabres · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Matt Grzelcyk
-4.2
category z-score total
Mattias Samuelsson
+4.9
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Mattias Samuelsson has the edge (Grzelcyk wins 1, Samuelsson wins 5 of 6 categories).
| Category | Grzelcyk | Samuelsson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Assists / game | 0.16 | 0.43 |
| Plus/minus / game | -0.18 | 0.33 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal / game | 0.92 | 1.42 |
| Hits / game | 0.38 | 1.52 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Grzelcyk vs Samuelsson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2020-21 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Grzelcyk 1G 6A, 23 SOG · Samuelsson 2G 2A, 14 SOG
Grzelcyk blocked 0 of Samuelsson's shots; Samuelsson blocked 2 of Grzelcyk's.
On the ice against each other (Grzelcyk's side)
7:52 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Grzelcyk's side
- Shot attempts
- 7–6
- 53.8%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.2
- 68.3%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Grzelcyk | Samuelsson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-21 | CHI 3–9 BUF | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2025-03-27 | PIT 3–7 BUF | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2025-01-17 | PIT 5–2 BUF | 0G 2A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-10-16 | PIT 6–5 BUF | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-12-07 | BOS 1–3 BUF | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-03-02 | BOS 7–1 BUF | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-12-31 | BOS 3–4 BUF | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-04-28 | BOS 5–0 BUF | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2021-05-01 | BOS 6–2 BUF | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2021-04-29 | BOS 5–2 BUF | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2021-04-23 | BOS 4–6 BUF | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2021-04-22 | BOS 5–1 BUF | 1G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 13 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Matt Grzelcyk
2games
1.7proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 vs PHI0.9 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ WSH0.8 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
Mattias Samuelsson
2games
3.4proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 vs PHI1.8 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Matt Grzelcyk or Mattias Samuelsson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mattias Samuelsson projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Matt Grzelcyk's 0.72. Grzelcyk had 12 points in 69 games; Samuelsson had 41 in 78 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Matt Grzelcyk or Mattias Samuelsson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Mattias Samuelsson leads in 26 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Grzelcyk and Samuelsson done against each other?
- In 13 games against each other in our data, Grzelcyk's team went 8–5. Grzelcyk had 7 points (1 goals) and Samuelsson had 4 (2 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →