Edgehalla

Who to start · 2025-26

Matthew Schaefer vs Sebastian Aho

Matthew SchaeferMatthew SchaeferIslanders · DefencevsSebastian AhoSebastian AhoHurricanes · Centre

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Matthew Schaefer projects to 2.02 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01.

Schaefer had 59 points in 82 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games.

This week Schaefer has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Aho has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Schaefer for 2.4 ESPN points to Aho's 2.2.

Sebastian Aho has the better number in 19 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

Schaefer's biggest edges: Goals above expected +3.8, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.59, Top skating speed 23.1.

Aho's biggest edges: Forecheck xG /60 0.39, Corsi 61.5%, Scoring chances 57.5%.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Matthew Schaefer

2.02

fantasy points per game

Sebastian Aho

2.01

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Matthew Schaefer has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromSchaeferAho
Goals (+2)0.530.72
Assists (+1)0.410.59
Power-play points (+0.5)0.100.17
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.04
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.270.25
Hits (+0.1)0.050.07
Blocks (+0.5)0.670.16

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: Schaefer vs Aho

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2025-26 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

SchaeferAho
0Team record in 2 meetings2
2Points in those games1

Schaefer 1G 1A, 4 SOG · Aho 1G 0A, 10 SOG

On the ice against each other (Schaefer's side)

12:14 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Schaefer's side

Shot attempts
3–22
12.0%
Expected goals
0.4–1.4
22.8%
Goals
0–2

Games against each other

Games between Matthew Schaefer and Sebastian Aho
DateScoreSchaeferAho
2026-04-04NYI 3–4 CAR0G 1A 1S1G 0A 7S
2025-10-30NYI 2–6 CAR1G 0A 3S0G 0A 3S

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

SchaeferAho

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Matthew Schaefer

2games (1 left)

2.4proj. ESPN pts

  • Wed, Sep 30 @ TOR
    Opp allows 12th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Anthony Stolarz (.893)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs NJD2.4 pts
    Opp allows 6th-most FP to DLikely vs Jake Allen (.904)

Sebastian Aho

3games (1 left)

2.2proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs FLA
    Opp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
  • Fri, Oct 2 vs WSH
    Likely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
  • Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 pts
    Opp allows 5th-most FP to CSchedule edge −12.8 win%Likely vs Dan Vladar (.906)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Matthew Schaefer or Sebastian Aho in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Matthew Schaefer projects to 2.02 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01. Schaefer had 59 points in 82 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Matthew Schaefer or Sebastian Aho?
On 2025-26 numbers, Sebastian Aho leads in 19 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Schaefer and Aho done against each other?
In 2 games against each other in our data, Schaefer's team went 0–2. Schaefer had 2 points (1 goals) and Aho had 1 (1 goals).

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →