Who to start · 2025-26
Morgan Rielly vs Sebastian Aho
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Rielly's 1.61.
Rielly had 36 points in 78 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games.
This week Rielly has 1 game left; Aho has 1 left. We project Aho for 2.0 ESPN points to Rielly's 1.6.
Sebastian Aho has the better number in 26 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Rielly's biggest edges: Goals above expected +2.4, Ascension score 60, Top skating speed 22.7.
Aho's biggest edges: Plus/minus +11, Fenwick 60.3%, Expected goals 55.1%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 1 PPP, 2 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Morgan Rielly
1.61
fantasy points per game
Sebastian Aho
2.01
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Sebastian Aho has the edge.
| Points per game from | Rielly | Aho |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.25 | 0.72 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.40 | 0.59 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.67 | 0.16 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Rielly vs Aho
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Rielly 2G 15A, 33 SOG · Aho 9G 10A, 56 SOG
Rielly blocked 3 of Aho's shots; Aho blocked 0 of Rielly's.
On the ice against each other (Rielly's side)
9:56 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Rielly's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–11
- 42.1%
- Expected goals
- 0.6–0.6
- 47.1%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Rielly | Aho |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | TOR 3–4 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2025-12-04 | TOR 5–1 CAR | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-11-09 | TOR 4–5 CAR | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 0A 5S |
| 2025-04-13 | TOR 4–1 CAR | 0G 3A 0S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2025-02-22 | TOR 6–3 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-01-09 | TOR 3–6 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-03-24 | TOR 1–2 CAR | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2024-03-16 | TOR 4–5 CAR | 0G 2A 2S | 2G 1A 4S |
| 2023-12-30 | TOR 2–3 CAR | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 2A 4S |
| 2023-03-25 | TOR 3–5 CAR | 0G 2A 0S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2023-03-17 | TOR 5–2 CAR | 1G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2022-11-06 | TOR 3–1 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
Latest 12 of 22 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Morgan Rielly
3games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Tue, Sep 29 vs MTL
- Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2BSchedule edge −9.3 win%
- Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT1.6 pts
Sebastian Aho
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLA
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSH
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.0 ptsSchedule edge −9.3 win%
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Morgan Rielly or Sebastian Aho in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Rielly's 1.61. Rielly had 36 points in 78 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Morgan Rielly or Sebastian Aho?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Sebastian Aho leads in 26 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Rielly and Aho done against each other?
- In 22 games against each other in our data, Rielly's team went 11–11. Rielly had 17 points (2 goals) and Aho had 19 (9 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →