Who to start · 2025-26
Nikolas Matinpalo vs Zach Metsa
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nikolas Matinpalo projects to 0.79 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Zach Metsa's 0.73.
Matinpalo had 5 points in 50 games; Metsa had 6 in 43 games.
This week Matinpalo has 3 games left with 1 soft matchup; Metsa has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project Matinpalo for 2.3 to Metsa's 1.5 over the games left.
They split the 34 stats both are ranked on 16–16.
Matinpalo's biggest edges: Top skating speed 23.1, 20+ mph bursts 44, Hits 49.
Metsa's biggest edges: Luck Meter +41, On-ice PDO 1091, Goals above expected +0.6.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nikolas Matinpalo rates ahead, -3.6 to -3.7 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Matinpalo is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 1.40 (was 3.02); Metsa is steady, Line Watch: moved up a line Oct 12.
- • Matinpalo has played 7 of the Senators' 9 games since Oct 3 (in and out of the lineup).
- • 2026-27 so far: 7 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 5 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
Ottawa Senators · Buffalo Sabres · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Nikolas Matinpalo
-3.6
category z-score total
Zach Metsa
-3.7
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nikolas Matinpalo has the edge (Matinpalo wins 2, Metsa wins 3 of 6 categories).
| Category | Matinpalo | Metsa |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Assists / game | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal / game | 0.73 | 0.47 |
| Hits / game | 0.85 | 0.11 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Matinpalo vs Metsa
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2025-26 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Matinpalo 0G 0A, 4 SOG · Metsa 0G 0A, 1 SOG
On the ice against each other (Matinpalo's side)
7:52 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Matinpalo's side
- Shot attempts
- 7–10
- 41.2%
- Expected goals
- 0.2–0.3
- 43.1%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Matinpalo | Metsa |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | OTT 4–1 BUF | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-12-23 | OTT 2–3 BUF | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Nikolas Matinpalo
3games
2.3proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 vs FLA0.8 ptsOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to Dvs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs NYR0.7 ptsOpp allows 12th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
Zach Metsa
2games
1.5proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 vs PHI0.8 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ WSH0.7 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Nikolas Matinpalo or Zach Metsa in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nikolas Matinpalo projects to 0.79 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Zach Metsa's 0.73. Matinpalo had 5 points in 50 games; Metsa had 6 in 43 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Nikolas Matinpalo or Zach Metsa?
- On 2025-26 numbers they split 16–16 across 34 stats where both qualify.
- How have Matinpalo and Metsa done against each other?
- In 2 games against each other in our data, Matinpalo's team went 1–1. Matinpalo had 0 points (0 goals) and Metsa had 0 (0 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →