Who to start · 2026-27

Tommy Novak vs Will Smith

Tommy NovakPenguins · Centre
vs
Will SmithSharks · Centre
SteadyLine Watch: moved down a line Nov 7
Rising+1:56 PP TOI

In 2026-27, Tommy Novak scored 1.71 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Will Smith's 1.55.

Novak had 15 points in 20 games; Smith had 15 in 22 games.

This week Novak has no games left; Smith has 1 left. In ESPN default points scoring we project Smith for 1.5 to Novak's 0.0 over the games left.

Tommy Novak has the better number in 20 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

Novak's biggest edges: High-danger chances 61.7%, Turnover Ledger /60 +0.032, Luck Meter +24.

Smith's biggest edges: Hardest shot 87.4, Ice-time share 32.4%, Ice time per game 19:58.

In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Tommy Novak rates ahead, +0.2 to -0.7 in summed category z-scores.

Role trend over the last 5 games: Novak is steady, Line Watch: moved down a line Nov 7; Smith is rising, +1:56 PP TOI.

  • • Novak, last 10 games (Oct 22–Nov 14): 5 G, 2 A, 1 PPP, 19 SOG.
  • • Smith, last 10 games (Oct 27–Nov 14): 3 G, 4 A, 3 PPP, 21 SOG.

Pittsburgh Penguins · San Jose Sharks · Who should I start? · Compare other players

Fantasy value: your scoring

Tommy Novak

+0.2

category z-score total

Will Smith

-0.7

category z-score total

Under Standard (6 categories), Tommy Novak has the edge (Novak wins 2, Smith wins 4 of 6 categories).

Per-stat breakdown under Standard (6 categories)
CategoryNovakSmith
Goals / game0.400.32
Assists / game0.350.36
Plus/minus / game0.10-0.45
Power-play points / game0.250.27
Shots on goal / game1.752.45
Hits / game0.150.36

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.

Head-to-head: Novak vs Smith

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2024-25 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

NovakSmith
4Team record in 5 meetings1
5Points in those games3

Novak 2G 3A, 10 SOG · Smith 0G 3A, 9 SOG

0Hits on each other1

On the ice against each other (Novak's side)

10:13 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27, from Novak's side

Shot attempts
14–13
51.9%
Expected goals
0.9–0.8
52.8%
Goals
0–0

Games against each other

Games between Tommy Novak and Will Smith
DateScoreNovakSmith
2026-11-11PIT 3–2 SJS0G 0A 2S0G 1A 3S
2025-12-13PIT 5–6 SJS0G 0A 2S0G 0A 4S
2025-10-18PIT 3–0 SJS0G 0A 1S0G 0A 1S
2025-01-23NSH 6–5 SJS1G 1A 3S0G 1A 1S
2025-01-21NSH 7–5 SJS1G 2A 2S0G 1A 0S

Faceoffs: Novak vs Smith

Model: Tommy Novak wins 48.2% of draws against Will Smith on average (L shot vs R shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.

Tommy Novak's predicted win % against Will Smith at each dot, in Novak's attacking direction, at home and on the road.
Novak atOZ leftOZ rightNZ left (att.)NZ right (att.)CentreNZ left (def.)NZ right (def.)DZ leftDZ right
Home49%47%50%48%48%50%48%51%49%
Road48%45%49%46%48%49%46%50%47%

They have not faced each other on a draw in the seasons we track.

Novak faceoffs · Smith faceoffs · how the model works

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

NovakSmith

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below

Every stat, side by side (continued)

NovakSmith

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Nov 9 to Nov 15. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.

Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring

Pittsburgh Penguins logo

Tommy Novak

2games (0 left)

0.0proj. ESPN default pts

San Jose Sharks logo

Will Smith

4games (1 left)

1.5proj. ESPN default pts

  • Mon, Nov 9 vs NYI
    Opp allows 6th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge −1.0 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.915)
  • Wed, Nov 11 vs PIT
    Opp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Sergei Murashov (.893)
  • Sat, Nov 14 @ UTA
    Opp allows 7th-most FP to CLikely vs Karel Vejmelka (.872)
  • Sun, Nov 15 vs NSHB2B1.5 pts
    Opp allows 11th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge −12.5 win%vs Juuse Saros (.922)

Player data stories

How the game changed, told through the numbers.

All NHL data stories

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Tommy Novak or Will Smith in fantasy hockey?
In 2026-27, Tommy Novak scored 1.71 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Will Smith's 1.55. Novak had 15 points in 20 games; Smith had 15 in 22 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Tommy Novak or Will Smith?
On 2026-27 numbers, Tommy Novak leads in 20 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Novak and Smith done against each other?
In 5 games against each other in our data, Novak's team went 4–1. Novak had 5 points (2 goals) and Smith had 3 (0 goals).

2026-27 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →