Draw Duel
Alex DeBrincat faceoff stats, 2025-26
DET · R · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
40.2%
90%: 34.8%–45.7% vs an average regular, on 148 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
38.0%
19 won of 50 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
32.0% / 36.8%
25 strong-side, 19 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.3 FOW
2026-10-04 vs WPG: 1 draws at 43.1%, range 0–1
Where DeBrincat wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 13 | 5 | 38.5% |
| OZ right | 17 | 4 | 23.5% |
| NZ left (att.) | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| Centre | 7 | 5 | 71.4% |
| NZ left (def.) | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| DZ left | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| DZ right | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R32.4%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L32.5%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R33.2%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L33.4%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L33.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R33.7%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L53.2%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L52.8%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L51.7%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L49.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L49.6%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R49.4%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 50.0% 2 | 50.0% 2 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 |
| 2025-26 | 38.0% 50 | 35.1% 37 | 46.2% 13 | — 0 | 31.0% 29 | 60.0% 15 | 16.7% 6 | 32.0% 25 | 36.8% 19 |
| 2024-25 | 44.8% 58 | 45.2% 42 | 46.7% 15 | 0.0% 1 | 50.0% 36 | 46.2% 13 | 22.2% 9 | 38.9% 36 | 58.8% 17 |
| 2023-24 | 42.1% 38 | 51.7% 29 | 11.1% 9 | — 0 | 34.6% 26 | 40.0% 5 | 71.4% 7 | 41.7% 24 | 46.2% 13 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Pinto | 5–1 | 83.3% | 38.0% | 38.6% | unusual (z 2.3) |
| Claude Giroux | 0–4 | 0.0% | 28.0% | 27.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Nico Hischier | 0–3 | 0.0% | 32.6% | 32.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Ryan McLeod | 1–2 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 40.0% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Fraser Minten | 3–0 | 100.0% | 42.4% | 42.8% | unusual (z 2.0) |
| Isac Lundeström | 1–2 | 33.3% | 40.4% | 40.3% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Morgan Frost | 0–3 | 0.0% | 37.9% | 37.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Mikael Granlund | 1–2 | 33.3% | 42.1% | 42.1% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 2–1 | 66.7% | 26.9% | 27.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 1–2 | 33.3% | 35.5% | 35.5% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 1–2 | 33.3% | 35.4% | 35.4% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Adam Lowry | 0–3 | 0.0% | 36.6% | 36.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | vs NYR | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-13 | @ TBL | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs NJD | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ PHI | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-16 | vs CGY | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-08 | @ NJD | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-04 | vs VGK | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-02 | @ NSH | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-04 | @ UTA | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-31 | vs COL | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs WPG likely opponents: Adam Lowry (38%), Jonathan Toews (32%)0.3 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-06 vs OTT likely opponents: Claude Giroux (35%), Lars Eller (39%)0.3 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-09 vs SEA likely opponents: Chandler Stephenson (39%), Matty Beniers (44%)0.3 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-10 vs MTL likely opponents: Nick Suzuki (40%), Phillip Danault (37%)0.3 FOW 0–1
FAQ
What is Alex DeBrincat's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Alex DeBrincat's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Alex DeBrincat win tonight?
When Alex DeBrincat has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Alex DeBrincat better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.