Draw Duel
Evgeny Kuznetsov faceoff stats, 2023-24
CAR · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
46.7%
90%: 43.0%–50.5% vs an average regular, on 829 draws since 2023-24
2023-24 FO%
45.0%
336 won of 747 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
46.5% / 42.6%
288 strong-side, 317 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Kuznetsov wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2023-24 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 151 | 66 | 43.7% |
| OZ right | 134 | 61 | 45.5% |
| NZ left (att.) | 19 | 7 | 36.8% |
| NZ right (att.) | 30 | 14 | 46.7% |
| Centre | 142 | 67 | 47.2% |
| NZ left (def.) | 27 | 14 | 51.9% |
| NZ right (def.) | 25 | 7 | 28.0% |
| DZ left | 91 | 47 | 51.6% |
| DZ right | 128 | 53 | 41.4% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R38.1%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L38.7%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R39.1%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R39.6%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L39.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L39.9%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L59.6%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L59.3%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L58.2%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L56.5%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L56.2%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R56.1%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 45.0% 747 | 44.4% 613 | 58.8% 68 | 36.4% 66 | 44.6% 285 | 44.9% 243 | 45.7% 219 | 46.5% 288 | 42.6% 317 |
| Playoffs (all) | 46.3% 82 | 54.7% 64 | 16.7% 18 | — 0 | 40.0% 35 | 51.5% 33 | 50.0% 14 | 37.5% 32 | 43.8% 32 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Horvat | 11–14 | 44.0% | 41.3% | 41.4% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Kyle MacLean | 14–5 | 73.7% | 46.6% | 47.6% | unusual (z 2.4) |
| Barclay Goodrow | 10–9 | 52.6% | 45.1% | 45.3% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 3–15 | 16.7% | 38.8% | 38.1% | a bit unusual (z -1.9) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 5–13 | 27.8% | 39.2% | 38.8% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 8–7 | 53.3% | 47.1% | 47.3% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Mika Zibanejad | 9–6 | 60.0% | 44.1% | 44.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Boone Jenner | 6–8 | 42.9% | 43.3% | 43.3% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Elias Lindholm | 6–8 | 42.9% | 41.3% | 41.3% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Nico Hischier | 9–5 | 64.3% | 38.8% | 39.5% | a bit unusual (z 2.0) |
| Aleksander Barkov | 5–9 | 35.7% | 39.1% | 39.0% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Brock Nelson | 6–8 | 42.9% | 46.9% | 46.8% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-16 | vs NYR | 9 | 13 | 69.2% |
| 2024-05-13 | @ NYR | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
| 2024-05-11 | vs NYR | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2024-05-09 | vs NYR | 2 | 10 | 20.0% |
| 2024-05-05 | @ NYR | 0 | 4 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-30 | vs NYI | 9 | 12 | 75.0% |
| 2024-04-27 | @ NYI | 1 | 8 | 12.5% |
| 2024-04-25 | @ NYI | 3 | 8 | 37.5% |
| 2024-04-22 | vs NYI | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| 2024-04-20 | vs NYI | 7 | 12 | 58.3% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Evgeny Kuznetsov's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Evgeny Kuznetsov's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Evgeny Kuznetsov win tonight?
When Evgeny Kuznetsov has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Evgeny Kuznetsov better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.