Draw Duel
Josh Doan faceoff stats, 2025-26
BUF · R · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
39.8%
90%: 34.2%–45.6% vs an average regular, on 123 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
22.2%
4 won of 18 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
18.2% / 33.3%
11 strong-side, 6 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.3 FOW
2026-10-06 vs MIN: 1 draws at 42.7%, range 0–1
Where Doan wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| OZ right | 10 | 1 | 10.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| Centre | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| NZ right (def.) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| DZ left | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| DZ right | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R32.0%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L32.1%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R32.8%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L33.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L33.3%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R33.3%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L52.8%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L52.4%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L51.2%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L49.5%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L49.2%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R49.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 50.0% 2 | — 0 | 50.0% 2 | — 0 | 50.0% 2 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 100.0% 1 |
| 2025-26 | 22.2% 18 | 18.8% 16 | 50.0% 2 | — 0 | 18.2% 11 | 0.0% 4 | 66.7% 3 | 18.2% 11 | 33.3% 6 |
| 2024-25 | 41.2% 85 | 41.2% 68 | 46.7% 15 | 0.0% 2 | 36.8% 38 | 44.1% 34 | 46.2% 13 | 36.5% 52 | 52.6% 19 |
| 2023-24 | 41.7% 12 | 45.5% 11 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 42.9% 7 | 33.3% 3 | 50.0% 2 | 66.7% 3 | 28.6% 7 |
| Playoffs (all) | 83.3% 6 | 66.7% 3 | 100.0% 3 | — 0 | 75.0% 4 | 100.0% 1 | 100.0% 1 | 100.0% 2 | 75.0% 4 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Dickinson | 1–4 | 20.0% | 41.4% | 41.2% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Bo Horvat | 3–2 | 60.0% | 34.5% | 34.7% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Mika Zibanejad | 1–4 | 20.0% | 38.6% | 38.4% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Jake Evans | 3–2 | 60.0% | 31.5% | 31.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Nick Foligno | 2–2 | 50.0% | 40.6% | 40.6% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Leo Carlsson | 2–1 | 66.7% | 46.5% | 46.6% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 0–3 | 0.0% | 37.5% | 37.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Connor Bedard | 1–1 | 50.0% | 47.7% | 47.7% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Alex Turcotte | 1–1 | 50.0% | 38.3% | 38.3% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Robert Thomas | 0–2 | 0.0% | 36.4% | 36.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Philipp Kurashev | 1–1 | 50.0% | 44.0% | 44.0% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Pavel Zacha | 0–2 | 0.0% | 38.1% | 37.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | @ CBJ | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-16 | @ MTL | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-05-14 | vs MTL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-12 | @ MTL | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-05-08 | vs MTL | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs CBJ | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-06 | vs TBL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-10 | vs SJS | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-25 | @ NJD | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-17 | vs MIN | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs MIN likely opponents: Joel Eriksson Ek (41%), Ryan Hartman (44%)0.3 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-08 vs DAL likely opponents: Wyatt Johnston (45%), Roope Hintz (38%)0.3 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-10 vs UTA likely opponents: Vincent Trocheck (35%), Kevin Stenlund (39%)0.3 FOW 0–1
FAQ
What is Josh Doan's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Josh Doan's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Josh Doan win tonight?
When Josh Doan has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Josh Doan better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.