Draw Duel
Nathan Walker faceoff stats, 2025-26
STL · L · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
49.7%
90%: 45.6%–53.8% vs an average regular, on 307 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
54.4%
56 won of 103 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
55.1% / 45.0%
49 strong-side, 20 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Walker wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 and 2024-25 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 44 | 24 | 54.5% |
| OZ right | 15 | 3 | 20.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 10 | 4 | 40.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Centre | 79 | 49 | 62.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 17 | 9 | 52.9% |
| NZ right (def.) | 10 | 5 | 50.0% |
| DZ left | 58 | 31 | 53.4% |
| DZ right | 18 | 9 | 50.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R40.9%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L41.6%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R42.0%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R42.5%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L42.6%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L42.8%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L62.3%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L62.0%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L61.0%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L59.3%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L59.0%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R59.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 54.4% 103 | 54.8% 93 | — 0 | 50.0% 10 | 44.4% 18 | 62.2% 45 | 50.0% 40 | 55.1% 49 | 45.0% 20 |
| 2024-25 | 52.6% 156 | 52.9% 138 | 50.0% 4 | 50.0% 14 | 46.3% 41 | 54.4% 79 | 55.6% 36 | 51.2% 80 | 38.7% 31 |
| 2023-24 | 47.6% 42 | 50.0% 34 | 40.0% 5 | 33.3% 3 | 43.8% 16 | 41.2% 17 | 66.7% 9 | 42.9% 14 | 47.1% 17 |
| Playoffs (all) | 66.7% 6 | 66.7% 6 | — 0 | — 0 | 100.0% 1 | 66.7% 3 | 50.0% 2 | 50.0% 4 | 100.0% 1 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marat Khusnutdinov | 7–3 | 70.0% | 54.8% | 55.1% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Mark Jankowski | 3–5 | 37.5% | 49.2% | 49.0% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Brayden Point | 4–3 | 57.1% | 53.9% | 54.0% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Curtis Lazar | 3–4 | 42.9% | 47.2% | 47.1% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Mikael Granlund | 3–4 | 42.9% | 53.8% | 53.6% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Ryan Greene | 2–4 | 33.3% | 57.1% | 56.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Adam Fantilli | 2–4 | 33.3% | 56.6% | 56.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Sam Carrick | 0–6 | 0.0% | 46.9% | 46.3% | unusual (z -2.3) |
| Sean Monahan | 1–4 | 20.0% | 47.1% | 46.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Charlie Coyle | 3–2 | 60.0% | 48.0% | 48.1% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Nick Paul | 3–2 | 60.0% | 52.7% | 52.7% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Casey Mittelstadt | 3–1 | 75.0% | 59.9% | 60.0% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | @ UTA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-14 | vs PIT | 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs WPG | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-12 | @ CAR | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-26 | vs SEA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-31 | vs CBJ | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
| 2026-01-29 | vs FLA | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-01-27 | vs DAL | 3 | 4 | 75.0% |
| 2026-01-24 | vs LAK | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-01-20 | @ WPG | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Nathan Walker's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Nathan Walker's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Nathan Walker win tonight?
When Nathan Walker has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Nathan Walker better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.