Draw Duel
Sam Lafferty faceoff stats, 2025-26
CHI · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
46.9%
90%: 43.1%–50.7% vs an average regular, on 600 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
50.0%
26 won of 52 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
43.3% / 37.5%
30 strong-side, 8 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Lafferty wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 and 2024-25 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 7 | 2 | 28.6% |
| OZ right | 42 | 18 | 42.9% |
| NZ left (att.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| NZ right (att.) | 10 | 2 | 20.0% |
| Centre | 46 | 30 | 65.2% |
| NZ left (def.) | 7 | 2 | 28.6% |
| NZ right (def.) | 16 | 10 | 62.5% |
| DZ left | 6 | 4 | 66.7% |
| DZ right | 74 | 37 | 50.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R38.5%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L38.8%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R39.5%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L39.8%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R40.0%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L40.0%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L59.9%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L59.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L58.4%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L56.7%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L56.4%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R56.2%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 50.0% 52 | 50.0% 52 | — 0 | — 0 | 30.8% 13 | 56.0% 25 | 57.1% 14 | 43.3% 30 | 37.5% 8 |
| 2024-25 | 50.6% 156 | 50.7% 144 | 50.0% 2 | 50.0% 10 | 44.4% 36 | 55.6% 54 | 50.0% 66 | 48.2% 112 | 41.7% 12 |
| 2023-24 | 42.1% 356 | 42.6% 324 | 31.3% 16 | 43.8% 16 | 43.6% 101 | 39.0% 146 | 45.0% 109 | 43.8% 210 | 34.9% 63 |
| Playoffs (all) | 44.4% 36 | 45.7% 35 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 57.1% 7 | 35.7% 14 | 46.7% 15 | 45.5% 22 | 40.0% 5 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | 6–15 | 28.6% | 43.3% | 42.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Ryan McLeod | 6–11 | 35.3% | 47.3% | 46.9% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Logan Cooley | 8–4 | 66.7% | 55.7% | 56.0% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Nico Sturm | 3–8 | 27.3% | 41.5% | 41.2% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Blake Lizotte | 4–7 | 36.4% | 48.7% | 48.4% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | 5–5 | 50.0% | 48.6% | 48.7% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 1–8 | 11.1% | 37.5% | 37.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Michael McCarron | 5–4 | 55.6% | 43.0% | 43.3% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Josh Norris | 4–4 | 50.0% | 46.6% | 46.6% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Sean Monahan | 3–5 | 37.5% | 45.2% | 45.1% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Luke Glendening | 4–4 | 50.0% | 43.4% | 43.5% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Brayden Schenn | 2–6 | 25.0% | 46.0% | 45.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | vs SJS | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs WPG | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-24 | @ NYI | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
| 2026-03-22 | vs NSH | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-20 | vs COL | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-14 | @ VGK | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-12 | @ UTA | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2026-03-09 | vs UTA | 3 | 5 | 60.0% |
| 2026-01-30 | vs CBJ | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-19 | vs WPG | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Sam Lafferty's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Sam Lafferty's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Sam Lafferty win tonight?
When Sam Lafferty has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Sam Lafferty better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.