Edgehalla

Who to start · 2025-26

Connor McDavid vs Matthew Schaefer

Connor McDavidConnor McDavidOilers · CentrevsMatthew SchaeferMatthew SchaeferIslanders · Defence

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Matthew Schaefer's 2.02.

McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Schaefer had 59 in 82 games.

This week McDavid has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Schaefer has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Schaefer for 2.4 ESPN points to McDavid's 2.3.

Connor McDavid has the better number in 26 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

McDavid's biggest edges: Forecheck xG /60 0.36, High-danger chances 57.5%, Expected goals 56.5%.

Schaefer's biggest edges: Hardest shot 93.9, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.058, Goals above expected +3.8.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 6 A, 2 PPP, 3 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Connor McDavid

3.45

fantasy points per game

Matthew Schaefer

2.02

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Connor McDavid has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromMcDavidSchaefer
Goals (+2)1.150.53
Assists (+1)1.320.41
Power-play points (+0.5)0.350.10
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.010.00
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.350.27
Hits (+0.1)0.050.05
Blocks (+0.5)0.220.67

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head

Connor McDavid and Matthew Schaefer have no head-to-head events in our data yet (regular season and playoffs since 2019-20).

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

McDavidSchaefer

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Connor McDavid

3games (1 left)

2.3proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs VAN
    Opp allows 6th-most FP to C
  • Thu, Oct 1 @ VAN
    Opp allows 6th-most FP to C
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs SEA2.3 pts
    Opp allows 6th-fewest FP to C

Matthew Schaefer

2games (1 left)

2.4proj. ESPN pts

  • Wed, Sep 30 @ TOR
    Opp allows 14th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +9.3 win%
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs NJD2.4 pts
    Opp allows 6th-most FP to D

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Connor McDavid or Matthew Schaefer in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Matthew Schaefer's 2.02. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Schaefer had 59 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Connor McDavid or Matthew Schaefer?
On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 26 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →