Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McDavid vs Morgan Barron
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Barron's 1.19.
McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Barron had 23 in 65 games.
This week McDavid has 2 games left with 2 tough matchups; Barron has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project McDavid for 6.1 to Barron's 2.2 over the games left.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 29 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
McDavid's biggest edges: Power-play share 88.5%, Offensive-zone time 47.7%, Power-play time per game 3:35.
Barron's biggest edges: Hardest shot 95.6, Hits 132, On-ice PDO 1019.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Connor McDavid rates ahead, +21.0 to -0.7 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: McDavid is rising, 14 P in last 5 (2.00/GP before); Barron is cooling, ixG/60 0.61 (was 0.84).
- • McDavid, 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 6 G, 20 A, 8 PPP, 22 SOG.
- • Barron, 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 0 PPP, 10 SOG.
Edmonton Oilers · Winnipeg Jets · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McDavid
+21.0
category z-score total
Morgan Barron
-0.7
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Connor McDavid has the edge (McDavid wins 5, Barron wins 1 of 6 categories).
| Category | McDavid | Barron |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.62 | 0.11 |
| Assists / game | 1.52 | 0.20 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.84 | 0.09 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.74 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal / game | 3.25 | 1.31 |
| Hits / game | 0.85 | 2.31 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: McDavid vs Barron
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McDavid 1G 16A, 32 SOG · Barron 1G 5A, 19 SOG
McDavid's offensive zone 1–0 · neutral 1–2 · McDavid's defensive zone 1–0 (2024-25 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (McDavid's side)
20:25 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from McDavid's side
- Shot attempts
- 26–15
- 63.4%
- Expected goals
- 1.3–0.7
- 67.0%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McDavid | Barron |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | EDM 4–3 WPG | 1G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-12-29 | EDM 3–1 WPG | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-12-06 | EDM 6–2 WPG | 0G 2A 5S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-04-13 | EDM 4–1 WPG | 0G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-03-20 | EDM 3–4 WPG | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-10-09 | EDM 0–6 WPG | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-03-26 | EDM 4–3 WPG | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-11-30 | EDM 3–1 WPG | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-10-21 | EDM 2–3 WPG | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2023-03-04 | EDM 5–7 WPG | 0G 1A 4S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2023-03-03 | EDM 6–3 WPG | 0G 3A 6S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-12-31 | EDM 1–2 WPG | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
Faceoffs: McDavid vs Barron
Model: Connor McDavid wins 51.0% of draws against Morgan Barron on average (L shot vs L shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.
| McDavid at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 60% | 41% | 61% | 42% | 51% | 61% | 42% | 62% | 44% |
| Road | 59% | 40% | 60% | 41% | 51% | 60% | 41% | 61% | 42% |
Head-to-head 2024-25 to 2025-26: McDavid 3–2 (60.0%). Blended with the model: 51.1%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z 0.4); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Connor McDavid
3games (2 left)
6.1proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs MINOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs CAR2.9 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to Cvs Brandon Bussi (.895)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs TOR3.2 pts
Morgan Barron
3games (2 left)
2.2proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 @ STLOpp allows 16th-most FP to CLikely vs Joel Hofer (.910)
- Thu, Oct 22 @ DAL1.0 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to Cvs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sun, Oct 25 vs MTL1.2 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McDavid or Morgan Barron in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Barron's 1.19. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Barron had 23 in 65 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McDavid or Morgan Barron?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 29 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McDavid and Barron done against each other?
- In 12 games against each other in our data, McDavid's team went 7–5. McDavid had 17 points (1 goals) and Barron had 6 (1 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, McDavid or Barron?
- Against each other, McDavid has won 3 and Barron 2 of their 5 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →