Who to start · 2025-26
Devon Toews vs John Carlson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.03 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Devon Toews's 1.40.
Toews had 24 points in 68 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games.
This week Toews has 3 games left with 1 soft matchup; Carlson has 3 left with 2 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project Carlson for 5.5 to Toews's 4.5 over the games left.
John Carlson has the better number in 16 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Toews's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.039, Forecheck xG /60 0.45, 20+ mph bursts 55.
Carlson's biggest edges: Goals above expected +2.6, Luck Meter +52, Hardest shot 99.8.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, John Carlson rates ahead, +6.2 to +5.2 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Toews is steady, On-ice xGF/60 2.74 (was 3.77); Carlson is steady, −3:19 TOI a game.
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 2 G, 5 A, 3 PPP, 12 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 8 GP, 2 G, 2 A, 1 PPP, 23 SOG.
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Fantasy value: your scoring
Devon Toews
+5.2
category z-score total
John Carlson
+6.2
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), John Carlson has the edge (Toews wins 1, Carlson wins 5 of 6 categories).
| Category | Toews | Carlson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| Assists / game | 0.40 | 0.51 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.67 | -0.05 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| Shots on goal / game | 1.56 | 2.41 |
| Hits / game | 0.45 | 0.59 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Toews vs Carlson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2018-19 to 2024-25: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Toews 4G 2A, 22 SOG · Carlson 1G 6A, 29 SOG
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Toews | Carlson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-21 | COL 2–1 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-11-15 | COL 2–5 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-02-13 | COL 6–3 WSH | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-01-24 | COL 6–2 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-11-19 | COL 4–0 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2020-02-10 | NYI 5–3 WSH | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2020-01-18 | NYI 4–6 WSH | 1G 2A 2S | 0G 2A 5S |
| 2019-12-31 | NYI 4–3 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 6S |
| 2019-10-04 | NYI 1–2 WSH | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2019-03-01 | NYI 1–3 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2019-01-18 | NYI 2–0 WSH | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Devon Toews
4games (3 left)
4.5proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 4th-most FP to DLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL1.4 ptsOpp allows 11th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH1.5 pts
John Carlson
3games
5.5proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 @ VGK1.8 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to Dvs Carter Hart (.891)
- Fri, Oct 23 @ COL1.8 ptsOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Mackenzie Blackwood (.903)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Devon Toews or John Carlson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.03 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Devon Toews's 1.40. Toews had 24 points in 68 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Devon Toews or John Carlson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, John Carlson leads in 16 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Toews and Carlson done against each other?
- In 11 games against each other in our data, Toews's team went 7–4. Toews had 6 points (4 goals) and Carlson had 7 (1 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →