Who to start · 2025-26
Jordan Spence vs Nathan MacKinnon
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Jordan Spence's 1.16.
Spence had 31 points in 73 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.
This week Spence has 3 games left with 1 soft matchup; MacKinnon has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 5.9 to Spence's 3.7 over the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 22 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Spence's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.031, Forecheck xG /60 0.43, High-danger chances 62.0%.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Top skating speed 24.8, On-ice PDO 1054, Ice-time share 36.6%.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to -0.5 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Spence is falling, On-ice xGF/60 1.91 (was 3.38); MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88).
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 8 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.
Ottawa Senators · Colorado Avalanche · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Jordan Spence
-0.5
category z-score total
Nathan MacKinnon
+14.0
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (Spence wins 1, MacKinnon wins 5 of 6 categories).
| Category | Spence | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.06 | 0.64 |
| Assists / game | 0.25 | 0.96 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.09 | 0.43 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.03 | 0.30 |
| Shots on goal / game | 1.26 | 4.38 |
| Hits / game | 0.72 | 0.68 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Spence vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Spence 0G 4A, 11 SOG · MacKinnon 5G 11A, 32 SOG
On the ice against each other (Spence's side)
3:38 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Spence's side
- Shot attempts
- 5–2
- 71.4%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.0
- 95.5%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Spence | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-28 | OTT 5–2 COL | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-01-08 | OTT 2–8 COL | 0G 0A 4S | 1G 3A 5S |
| 2025-03-27 | LAK 0–4 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-11-13 | LAK 2–4 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 3A 3S |
| 2023-12-03 | LAK 4–1 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2023-04-08 | LAK 3–4 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-03-09 | LAK 5–2 COL | 0G 1A 0S | 1G 0A 8S |
| 2022-04-13 | LAK 3–9 COL | 0G 2A 3S | 3G 2A 6S |
| 2022-03-15 | LAK 0–3 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 3S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Jordan Spence
3games
3.7proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 vs FLA1.2 ptsOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs NYR1.2 ptsOpp allows 12th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (2 left)
5.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 10th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.4 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Jordan Spence or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Jordan Spence's 1.16. Spence had 31 points in 73 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Jordan Spence or Nathan MacKinnon?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 22 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Spence and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 9 games against each other in our data, Spence's team went 3–6. Spence had 4 points (0 goals) and MacKinnon had 16 (5 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →