Draw Duel
Josh Samanski faceoff stats, 2025-26
EDM · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
42.6%
90%: 37.8%–47.6% vs an average regular, on 152 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
48.2%
54 won of 112 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
53.1% / 28.6%
49 strong-side, 21 weak-side draws this season
Next game
2.6 FOW
2026-10-07 vs ANA: 6 draws at 45.3%, range 0–5
Where Samanski wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 31 | 14 | 45.2% |
| OZ right | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 6 | 4 | 66.7% |
| NZ right (att.) | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| Centre | 47 | 25 | 53.2% |
| NZ left (def.) | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| DZ left | 12 | 8 | 66.7% |
| DZ right | 12 | 4 | 33.3% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R34.3%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L34.9%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R35.3%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R35.7%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L35.9%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L36.1%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L55.6%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L55.2%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L54.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L52.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L52.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R51.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 50.0% 14 | 50.0% 14 | — 0 | — 0 | 60.0% 5 | 42.9% 7 | 50.0% 2 | 20.0% 5 | 75.0% 4 |
| 2025-26 | 48.2% 112 | 49.1% 108 | 0.0% 1 | 33.3% 3 | 44.1% 34 | 50.0% 56 | 50.0% 22 | 53.1% 49 | 28.6% 21 |
| Playoffs (all) | 46.2% 26 | 48.0% 25 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 33.3% 9 | 50.0% 14 | 66.7% 3 | 42.9% 14 | 20.0% 5 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Washe | 7–9 | 43.8% | 39.3% | 39.5% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Frederick Gaudreau | 3–3 | 50.0% | 46.4% | 46.4% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Arttu Hyry | 2–3 | 40.0% | 39.4% | 39.4% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Alexander Wennberg | 3–2 | 60.0% | 43.4% | 43.6% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Yakov Trenin | 2–3 | 40.0% | 50.9% | 50.8% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Nazem Kadri | 3–2 | 60.0% | 47.7% | 47.8% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Danila Yurov | 3–2 | 60.0% | 57.2% | 57.2% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Anze Kopitar | 1–3 | 25.0% | 37.9% | 37.8% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Leo Carlsson | 3–1 | 75.0% | 48.1% | 48.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Brock Nelson | 1–3 | 25.0% | 40.7% | 40.6% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Yanni Gourde | 1–3 | 25.0% | 47.8% | 47.6% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Tomas Hertl | 1–3 | 25.0% | 30.6% | 30.5% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs SEA | 5 | 10 | 50.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ VAN | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-30 | @ ANA | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-28 | vs ANA | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-26 | @ ANA | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
| 2026-04-24 | @ ANA | 3 | 8 | 37.5% |
| 2026-04-22 | vs ANA | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-16 | vs VAN | 2 | 7 | 28.6% |
| 2026-04-13 | vs COL | 3 | 8 | 37.5% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ LAK | 2 | 9 | 22.2% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-07 vs ANA likely opponents: Tim Washe (38%), Mikael Granlund (46%)2.6 FOW 0–5
- 2026-10-10 vs SJS likely opponents: Alexander Wennberg (48%), Macklin Celebrini (46%)2.7 FOW 0–5
FAQ
What is Josh Samanski's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Josh Samanski's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Josh Samanski win tonight?
When Josh Samanski has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Josh Samanski better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.