Draw Duel
Matt Coronato faceoff stats, 2025-26
CGY · R · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
43.5%
90%: 39.8%–47.3% vs an average regular, on 367 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
39.8%
70 won of 176 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
40.3% / 28.6%
139 strong-side, 7 weak-side draws this season
Next game
1.9 FOW
2026-10-04 vs SEA: 4 draws at 46.8%, range 0–4
Where Coronato wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| OZ right | 89 | 34 | 38.2% |
| NZ left (att.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| NZ right (att.) | 19 | 8 | 42.1% |
| Centre | 30 | 12 | 40.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| NZ right (def.) | 13 | 5 | 38.5% |
| DZ left | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| DZ right | 18 | 9 | 50.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R35.4%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L35.6%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R36.3%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L36.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R36.8%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L36.8%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L56.6%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L56.2%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L55.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L53.3%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L53.0%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R52.8%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 61.5% 13 | 63.6% 11 | 50.0% 2 | — 0 | 66.7% 9 | 66.7% 3 | 0.0% 1 | 66.7% 9 | 0.0% 1 |
| 2025-26 | 39.8% 176 | 39.3% 135 | 43.6% 39 | 0.0% 2 | 37.9% 95 | 40.3% 62 | 47.4% 19 | 40.3% 139 | 28.6% 7 |
| 2024-25 | 42.8% 159 | 41.0% 122 | 48.6% 37 | — 0 | 43.3% 104 | 45.0% 40 | 33.3% 15 | 42.6% 136 | 20.0% 5 |
| 2023-24 | 26.3% 19 | 22.2% 18 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | 11.1% 9 | 66.7% 3 | 28.6% 7 | 23.5% 17 | — 0 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Miller | 4–6 | 40.0% | 36.6% | 36.6% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 1–9 | 10.0% | 39.2% | 38.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.9) |
| Alexander Wennberg | 6–4 | 60.0% | 44.5% | 44.8% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Matty Beniers | 3–7 | 30.0% | 46.5% | 46.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 6–4 | 60.0% | 39.2% | 39.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Anze Kopitar | 3–6 | 33.3% | 36.5% | 36.5% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Quinton Byfield | 4–4 | 50.0% | 46.6% | 46.7% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Macklin Celebrini | 4–2 | 66.7% | 45.3% | 45.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Radek Faksa | 3–3 | 50.0% | 38.8% | 38.9% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Brayden Schenn | 4–2 | 66.7% | 41.0% | 41.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Marco Kasper | 0–5 | 0.0% | 44.2% | 43.8% | a bit unusual (z -2.0) |
| Josh Norris | 2–3 | 40.0% | 41.5% | 41.5% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ VAN | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs SEA | 6 | 9 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-16 | vs LAK | 3 | 5 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-12 | vs UTA | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ SEA | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ COL | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ DAL | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ ANA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ VGK | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2026-03-30 | @ COL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs SEA likely opponents: Chandler Stephenson (41%), Matty Beniers (46%)1.9 FOW 0–4
- 2026-10-08 vs COL likely opponents: Brock Nelson (45%), Nathan MacKinnon (48%)1.9 FOW 0–4
- 2026-10-10 vs ANA likely opponents: Tim Washe (37%), Mikael Granlund (46%)1.8 FOW 0–4
FAQ
What is Matt Coronato's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Matt Coronato's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Matt Coronato win tonight?
When Matt Coronato has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Matt Coronato better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.