Draw Duel
Mitchell Stephens faceoff stats, 2024-25
SEA · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
50.8%
90%: 46.4%–55.2% vs an average regular, on 329 draws since 2023-24
2024-25 FO%
53.6%
104 won of 194 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
59.4% / 39.3%
106 strong-side, 56 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Stephens wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2024-25 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 18 | 8 | 44.4% |
| OZ right | 36 | 19 | 52.8% |
| NZ left (att.) | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| Centre | 32 | 19 | 59.4% |
| NZ left (def.) | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 5 | 4 | 80.0% |
| DZ left | 30 | 12 | 40.0% |
| DZ right | 61 | 38 | 62.3% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R42.3%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L42.6%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R43.2%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L43.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R43.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L43.8%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L63.6%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L63.3%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L62.2%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L60.5%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L60.2%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R60.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 53.6% 194 | 57.0% 135 | 0.0% 5 | 50.0% 54 | 50.0% 54 | 55.1% 49 | 54.9% 91 | 59.4% 106 | 39.3% 56 |
| 2023-24 | 55.6% 135 | 56.6% 122 | 0.0% 1 | 50.0% 12 | 63.3% 30 | 53.6% 56 | 53.1% 49 | 48.4% 64 | 65.6% 32 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mittelstadt | 4–6 | 40.0% | 55.8% | 55.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
| Dylan Larkin | 5–5 | 50.0% | 48.5% | 48.5% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Morgan Frost | 5–4 | 55.6% | 49.3% | 49.4% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Peyton Krebs | 3–5 | 37.5% | 54.7% | 54.4% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Dylan Cozens | 4–3 | 57.1% | 51.5% | 51.6% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Joseph Veleno | 3–3 | 50.0% | 52.2% | 52.1% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | 4–2 | 66.7% | 52.9% | 53.0% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Morgan Geekie | 4–1 | 80.0% | 56.0% | 56.2% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Filip Chytil | 2–3 | 40.0% | 54.6% | 54.5% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Anton Lundell | 2–3 | 40.0% | 49.1% | 49.0% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 3–2 | 60.0% | 51.6% | 51.6% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Mark Kastelic | 1–4 | 20.0% | 45.5% | 45.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-25 | @ STL | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
| 2025-02-23 | @ TBL | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
| 2025-02-22 | @ FLA | 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
| 2025-02-08 | @ CGY | 5 | 10 | 50.0% |
| 2025-02-06 | vs TOR | 4 | 10 | 40.0% |
| 2025-02-04 | vs DET | 3 | 9 | 33.3% |
| 2025-02-02 | vs CGY | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2025-01-30 | vs SJS | 6 | 8 | 75.0% |
| 2025-01-28 | vs ANA | 5 | 8 | 62.5% |
| 2025-01-27 | @ EDM | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Mitchell Stephens's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Mitchell Stephens's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Mitchell Stephens win tonight?
When Mitchell Stephens has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Mitchell Stephens better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.