Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McDavid vs Mikael Backlund
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mikael Backlund's 1.13.
McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Backlund had 43 in 82 games.
This week McDavid has 2 games left with 2 tough matchups; Backlund has 2 left. In ESPN default points scoring we project McDavid for 6.1 to Backlund's 2.0 over the games left.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 28 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
McDavid's biggest edges: Offensive-zone time 47.7%, Offensive-zone start % 65.6%, Top skating speed 24.6.
Backlund's biggest edges: Hardest shot 93.5, Luck Meter +29, Goals above expected +1.6.
Head to head on the dot, Backlund leads McDavid 99–66.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Connor McDavid rates ahead, +21.0 to -0.9 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: McDavid is rising, 14 P in last 5 (2.00/GP before); Backlund is steady, ixG/60 1.23 (was 0.58).
- • McDavid, 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 6 G, 20 A, 8 PPP, 22 SOG.
- • Backlund, 2026-27 so far: 8 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 24 SOG.
Edmonton Oilers · Calgary Flames · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McDavid
+21.0
category z-score total
Mikael Backlund
-0.9
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Connor McDavid has the edge (McDavid wins 6, Backlund wins 0 of 6 categories).
| Category | McDavid | Backlund |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.62 | 0.18 |
| Assists / game | 1.52 | 0.25 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.84 | -0.07 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.74 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal / game | 3.25 | 2.52 |
| Hits / game | 0.85 | 0.49 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: McDavid vs Backlund
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McDavid 25G 42A, 157 SOG · Backlund 12G 17A, 115 SOG
McDavid's offensive zone 27–32 · neutral 19–44 · McDavid's defensive zone 20–23 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
McDavid blocked 1 of Backlund's shots; Backlund blocked 2 of McDavid's.
On the ice against each other (McDavid's side)
32:03 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from McDavid's side
- Shot attempts
- 40–38
- 51.3%
- Expected goals
- 2.5–1.4
- 63.4%
- Goals
- 2–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McDavid | Backlund |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | EDM 3–4 CGY | 0G 1A 8S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-12-27 | EDM 2–3 CGY | 1G 0A 7S | 0G 1A 6S |
| 2025-12-23 | EDM 5–1 CGY | 0G 5A 6S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2025-10-08 | EDM 3–4 CGY | 0G 2A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-10-13 | EDM 1–4 CGY | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-04-06 | EDM 4–2 CGY | 0G 2A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-02-24 | EDM 3–6 CGY | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 1A 5S |
| 2024-01-20 | EDM 3–1 CGY | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-10-29 | EDM 5–2 CGY | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-12-27 | EDM 2–1 CGY | 1G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2022-10-29 | EDM 3–2 CGY | 1G 2A 1S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2022-10-15 | EDM 3–4 CGY | 1G 0A 4S | 1G 0A 6S |
Latest 12 of 42 meetings.
Faceoffs: McDavid vs Backlund
Model: Connor McDavid wins 48.3% of draws against Mikael Backlund on average (L shot vs L shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.
| McDavid at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 57% | 38% | 58% | 40% | 49% | 58% | 40% | 60% | 41% |
| Road | 56% | 37% | 57% | 38% | 48% | 57% | 38% | 58% | 39% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2025-26: McDavid 20–28 (41.7%). Blended with the model: 47.7%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z -0.9); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Connor McDavid
3games (2 left)
6.1proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs MINOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs CAR2.9 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 vs TOR3.2 pts
Mikael Backlund
2games
2.0proj. ESPN default pts
- Thu, Oct 22 vs MIN1.0 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 vs DET1.0 ptsOpp allows 12th-fewest FP to CLikely vs John Gibson (.901)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McDavid or Mikael Backlund in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mikael Backlund's 1.13. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Backlund had 43 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McDavid or Mikael Backlund?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 28 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McDavid and Backlund done against each other?
- In 42 games against each other in our data, McDavid's team went 22–20. McDavid had 67 points (25 goals) and Backlund had 29 (12 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, McDavid or Backlund?
- Against each other, McDavid has won 66 and Backlund 99 of their 165 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →