Who to start · 2025-26
Mikael Backlund vs Nathan MacKinnon
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mikael Backlund's 1.13.
Backlund had 43 points in 82 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.
This week Backlund has 2 games left; MacKinnon has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 5.9 to Backlund's 2.0 over the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 30 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Backlund's biggest edges: Shorthanded points 5, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.048, Ascension score 50.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Offensive-zone start % 71.8%, Offensive-zone time 46.6%, Scoring chances 59.3%.
Head to head on the dot, MacKinnon leads Backlund 111–108.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to -0.9 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Backlund is steady, ixG/60 1.23 (was 0.58); MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88).
- • Backlund, 2026-27 so far: 8 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 24 SOG.
- • MacKinnon, 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.
Calgary Flames · Colorado Avalanche · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Mikael Backlund
-0.9
category z-score total
Nathan MacKinnon
+14.0
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (Backlund wins 0, MacKinnon wins 6 of 6 categories).
| Category | Backlund | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.18 | 0.64 |
| Assists / game | 0.25 | 0.96 |
| Plus/minus / game | -0.07 | 0.43 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.02 | 0.30 |
| Shots on goal / game | 2.52 | 4.38 |
| Hits / game | 0.49 | 0.68 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Backlund vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Backlund 8G 10A, 74 SOG · MacKinnon 20G 27A, 132 SOG
Backlund's offensive zone 27–32 · neutral 45–45 · Backlund's defensive zone 36–34 (2017-18 to 2026-27)
Backlund blocked 1 of MacKinnon's shots; MacKinnon blocked 1 of Backlund's.
On the ice against each other (Backlund's side)
33:00 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27, from Backlund's side
- Shot attempts
- 43–42
- 50.6%
- Expected goals
- 2.1–2.8
- 42.9%
- Goals
- 1–3
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Backlund | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | CGY 3–7 COL | 1G 0A 8S | 1G 2A 2S |
| 2026-04-14 | CGY 1–3 COL | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2026-04-09 | CGY 1–3 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 2A 6S |
| 2026-03-30 | CGY 2–9 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 2A 5S |
| 2025-03-31 | CGY 3–2 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-02-06 | CGY 2–4 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 3A 2S |
| 2024-03-12 | CGY 2–6 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2023-12-11 | CGY 5–6 COL | 0G 1A 3S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2023-11-25 | CGY 1–3 COL | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2023-02-25 | CGY 1–4 COL | 0G 0A 4S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2023-01-18 | CGY 1–4 COL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 2A 3S |
| 2022-10-13 | CGY 5–3 COL | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 1A 3S |
Latest 12 of 28 meetings.
Faceoffs: Backlund vs MacKinnon
Model: Mikael Backlund wins 51.0% of draws against Nathan MacKinnon on average (L shot vs R shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.
| Backlund at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 51% | 50% | 52% | 51% | 51% | 52% | 51% | 53% | 52% |
| Road | 49% | 49% | 51% | 50% | 51% | 51% | 50% | 52% | 51% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2026-27: Backlund 30–51 (37.0%). Blended with the model: 49.0%. The record is unusual for this matchup (z -2.5); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Backlund faceoffs · MacKinnon faceoffs · how the model works
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Mikael Backlund
2games
2.0proj. ESPN default pts
- Thu, Oct 22 vs MIN1.0 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 vs DET1.0 ptsOpp allows 12th-fewest FP to CLikely vs John Gibson (.901)
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (2 left)
5.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 12th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.4 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mikael Backlund or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mikael Backlund's 1.13. Backlund had 43 points in 82 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mikael Backlund or Nathan MacKinnon?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 30 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Backlund and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 28 games against each other in our data, Backlund's team went 10–18. Backlund had 18 points (8 goals) and MacKinnon had 47 (20 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Backlund or MacKinnon?
- Against each other, Backlund has won 108 and MacKinnon 111 of their 219 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →