Who to start · 2026-27
Jesperi Kotkaniemi vs Nathan MacKinnon
In 2026-27, Nathan MacKinnon scored 2.94 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Jesperi Kotkaniemi's 1.12.
Kotkaniemi had 5 points in 10 games; MacKinnon had 16 in 10 games.
This week Kotkaniemi has 1 game left; MacKinnon has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 5.9 to Kotkaniemi's 0.9 over the games left.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi has the better number in 2 of the 2 stats both are ranked on.
Kotkaniemi's biggest edges: Ascension score 70, Luck Meter +69.
Head to head on the dot, MacKinnon leads Kotkaniemi 6–4.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Kotkaniemi is surging, On-ice xGF/60 2.80 (was 1.98); MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88).
- • Kotkaniemi, last 10 games (Oct 3–Oct 22): 2 G, 3 A, 0 PPP, 10 SOG.
- • MacKinnon, last 10 games (Sep 30–Oct 20): 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.
Carolina Hurricanes · Colorado Avalanche · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
0.0
category z-score total
Nathan MacKinnon
0.0
category z-score total
Dead even under Standard (6 categories) (Kotkaniemi wins 0, MacKinnon wins 0 of 6 categories).
| Category | Kotkaniemi | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| Assists / game | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Shots on goal / game | 1.00 | 4.40 |
| Hits / game | 1.20 | 0.50 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Kotkaniemi vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2018-19 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Kotkaniemi 2G 2A, 19 SOG · MacKinnon 6G 12A, 45 SOG
Kotkaniemi's offensive zone 1–2 · neutral 0–2 · Kotkaniemi's defensive zone 3–2 (2021-22 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Kotkaniemi's side)
1:32 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Kotkaniemi's side
- Shot attempts
- 2–0
- 100.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.1–0.0
- 100.0%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Kotkaniemi | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | CAR 3–5 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 3A 2S |
| 2025-10-23 | CAR 5–4 COL | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2024-12-05 | CAR 5–3 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2024-11-09 | CAR 4–6 COL | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 3A 7S |
| 2024-02-08 | CAR 5–2 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2023-10-21 | CAR 4–6 COL | 1G 1A 1S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2022-11-17 | CAR 2–3 COL | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-11-12 | CAR 1–4 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2022-04-16 | CAR 4–7 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 2G 0A 5S |
| 2022-03-10 | CAR 2–0 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 6S |
| 2019-12-05 | MTL 2–3 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2019-01-12 | MTL 3–0 COL | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 13 meetings.
Faceoffs: Kotkaniemi vs MacKinnon
Model: Jesperi Kotkaniemi wins 49.0% of draws against Nathan MacKinnon on average (L shot vs R shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.
| Kotkaniemi at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 49% | 48% | 50% | 49% | 49% | 50% | 49% | 51% | 50% |
| Road | 48% | 47% | 49% | 48% | 49% | 49% | 48% | 50% | 49% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2025-26: Kotkaniemi 3–4 (42.9%). Blended with the model: 48.9%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z -0.3); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Kotkaniemi faceoffs · MacKinnon faceoffs · how the model works
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
3games (1 left)
0.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 @ VANOpp allows 5th-most FP to CLikely vs Leevi Meriläinen (.917)
- Thu, Oct 22 @ EDMOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Devon Levi (.887)
- Sat, Oct 24 @ STL0.9 ptsOpp allows 16th-most FP to CLikely vs Joel Hofer (.921)
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (2 left)
5.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 12th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.917)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.898)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.4 pts
FAQ
- Should I start Jesperi Kotkaniemi or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- In 2026-27, Nathan MacKinnon scored 2.94 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Jesperi Kotkaniemi's 1.12. Kotkaniemi had 5 points in 10 games; MacKinnon had 16 in 10 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Jesperi Kotkaniemi or Nathan MacKinnon?
- On 2026-27 numbers, Jesperi Kotkaniemi leads in 2 of 2 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Kotkaniemi and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 13 games against each other in our data, Kotkaniemi's team went 5–8. Kotkaniemi had 4 points (2 goals) and MacKinnon had 18 (6 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Kotkaniemi or MacKinnon?
- Against each other, Kotkaniemi has won 4 and MacKinnon 6 of their 10 head-to-head draws.
2026-27 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →