Who to start · 2026-27
Mitch Marner vs Pontus Holmberg
In 2026-27, Mitch Marner scored 2.30 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pontus Holmberg's 1.44.
Marner had 24 points in 19 games; Holmberg had 13 in 20 games.
This week Marner has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Holmberg has no games left. In ESPN default points scoring we project Marner for 2.6 to Holmberg's 0.0 over the games left.
They split the 14 stats both are ranked on 7–7.
Marner's biggest edges: Net penalties drawn /60 +0.63, Sequence xG 58.4%, Expected goals 57.8%.
Holmberg's biggest edges: Luck Meter +43, Scoring chances 54.5%, High-danger chances 58.1%.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Mitch Marner rates ahead, +4.0 to -1.0 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Marner is rising, 7 P in last 5 (1.05/GP before); Holmberg is cooling, ixG/60 0.49 (was 1.13).
- • Marner has played 10 of the Golden Knights' 12 games since Oct 17 (in and out of the lineup).
- • Marner, last 10 games (Oct 17–Nov 13): 1 G, 14 A, 6 PPP, 23 SOG.
- • Holmberg, last 10 games (Oct 24–Nov 14): 4 G, 4 A, 1 PPP, 16 SOG.
Vegas Golden Knights · Tampa Bay Lightning · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Under Standard (6 categories), Mitch Marner has the edge (Marner wins 3, Holmberg wins 3 of 6 categories).
| Category | Marner | Holmberg |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| Assists / game | 1.11 | 0.35 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.53 | 0.05 |
| Shots on goal / game | 2.37 | 1.60 |
| Hits / game | 0.37 | 0.85 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Marner vs Holmberg
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Marner 1G 3A, 8 SOG · Holmberg 0G 0A, 2 SOG
Marner blocked 0 of Holmberg's shots; Holmberg blocked 2 of Marner's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice against each other (Marner's side)
5:11 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27, from Marner's side
- Shot attempts
- 10–8
- 55.6%
- Expected goals
- 0.8–0.3
- 69.9%
- Goals
- 4–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Marner | Holmberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | VGK 2–6 TBL | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-11-06 | VGK 3–6 TBL | 1G 2A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-10-26 | VGK 1–2 TBL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
Faceoffs: Marner vs Holmberg
Model: Mitch Marner wins 45.6% of draws against Pontus Holmberg on average (R shot vs L shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.
| Marner at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 46% | 45% | 47% | 46% | 46% | 47% | 46% | 48% | 47% |
| Road | 44% | 43% | 45% | 44% | 45% | 45% | 44% | 47% | 45% |
They have not faced each other on a draw in the seasons we track.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
Chemistry as teammates
How their expected-goal share at 5v5 changed together vs apart (shrunk for sample size), and how closely their DraftKings points moved game to game (raw, that season only; for forward linemates the typical value is about .28).
| Season | 5v5 min together | xG% lift | xGF/60 lift | DK correlation (raw) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 TOR | 66 | −3.5 | −0.37 | – (too few games together) |
| 2023-24 TOR | 53 | −0.9 | −0.04 | – (too few games together) |
This week's schedule
Nov 9 to Nov 15. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Mitch Marner
3games (1 left)
2.6proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Nov 11 vs UTAOpp allows 7th-most FP to RWLikely vs Sebastian Cossa (.862)
- Fri, Nov 13 vs NSHOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Juuse Saros (.922)
- Sun, Nov 15 vs VAN2.6 pts
Pontus Holmberg
3games (0 left)
0.0proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Nov 11 @ BUFOpp allows 2nd-most FP to RWLikely vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.867)
- Thu, Nov 12 @ CBJB2B
- Sat, Nov 14 vs DETOpp allows 15th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Daniil Tarasov (.931)
Player data stories
How the game changed, told through the numbers.
- In 2022-23, Four NHL Players Wore a Number in the 90s for Every One in No. 9 The count was 53 to 13, and the incomplete 2025-26 rosters show the same split, 51 to 12.
- The 1,000-Game Club Had Its Biggest Year. Getting In Is No Easier. Seventeen players reached 1,000 NHL games in 2025-26, more than in any season before, in the biggest league the NHL has had.
- Only 14 NHL Defencemen Still Score Like Ken Daneyko A stay-at-home defenceman stays back to defend and leaves the scoring to others.
- How Much Lighter Did the NHL Really Get? Teams write down NHL weights.
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mitch Marner or Pontus Holmberg in fantasy hockey?
- In 2026-27, Mitch Marner scored 2.30 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pontus Holmberg's 1.44. Marner had 24 points in 19 games; Holmberg had 13 in 20 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mitch Marner or Pontus Holmberg?
- On 2026-27 numbers they split 7–7 across 14 stats where both qualify.
- How have Marner and Holmberg done against each other?
- In 3 games against each other in our data, Marner's team went 0–3. Marner had 4 points (1 goals) and Holmberg had 0 (0 goals).
2026-27 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →