Draw Duel
Mitch Marner faceoff stats, 2025-26
VGK · R · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
42.1%
90%: 38.9%–45.3% vs an average regular, on 492 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
40.3%
150 won of 372 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
43.1% / 44.2%
188 strong-side, 104 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Marner wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 49 | 20 | 40.8% |
| OZ right | 93 | 36 | 38.7% |
| NZ left (att.) | 10 | 4 | 40.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 20 | 10 | 50.0% |
| Centre | 80 | 23 | 28.7% |
| NZ left (def.) | 11 | 6 | 54.5% |
| NZ right (def.) | 15 | 8 | 53.3% |
| DZ left | 34 | 16 | 47.1% |
| DZ right | 60 | 27 | 45.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R34.1%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L34.2%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R35.0%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L35.2%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L35.4%
- Jack Drury NSH · L35.5%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L55.1%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L54.8%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L53.6%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L51.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L51.6%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R51.4%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 40.3% 372 | 41.2% 352 | 40.0% 5 | 20.0% 15 | 39.4% 142 | 37.5% 136 | 45.7% 94 | 43.1% 188 | 44.2% 104 |
| 2024-25 | 29.4% 34 | 33.3% 24 | — 0 | 20.0% 10 | 28.6% 14 | 0.0% 7 | 46.2% 13 | 33.3% 15 | 29.4% 17 |
| 2023-24 | 25.0% 16 | 33.3% 12 | — 0 | 0.0% 4 | 28.6% 7 | 33.3% 3 | 16.7% 6 | 20.0% 10 | 20.0% 5 |
| Playoffs (all) | 41.4% 70 | 39.7% 68 | 100.0% 1 | 100.0% 1 | 24.0% 25 | 54.5% 22 | 47.8% 23 | 53.8% 39 | 19.0% 21 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz | 9–9 | 50.0% | 44.6% | 44.8% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Logan Cooley | 8–7 | 53.3% | 50.6% | 50.7% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Matty Beniers | 6–7 | 46.2% | 45.2% | 45.3% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Matt Duchene | 6–4 | 60.0% | 42.2% | 42.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Macklin Celebrini | 3–6 | 33.3% | 44.5% | 44.3% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Danila Yurov | 7–2 | 77.8% | 51.4% | 51.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Elias Pettersson | 3–6 | 33.3% | 45.1% | 44.9% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Erik Haula | 3–6 | 33.3% | 41.5% | 41.3% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Quinton Byfield | 5–3 | 62.5% | 47.1% | 47.3% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Ryan Poehling | 3–5 | 37.5% | 42.2% | 42.2% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Andrew Copp | 3–5 | 37.5% | 40.2% | 40.2% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Claude Giroux | 3–5 | 37.5% | 28.9% | 29.0% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | vs CAR | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-06-09 | vs CAR | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-06 | vs ANA | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-05-04 | vs ANA | 2 | 7 | 28.6% |
| 2026-05-01 | @ UTA | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| 2026-04-29 | vs UTA | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
| 2026-04-27 | @ UTA | 6 | 14 | 42.9% |
| 2026-04-24 | @ UTA | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| 2026-04-21 | vs UTA | 2 | 7 | 28.6% |
| 2026-04-19 | vs UTA | 0 | 3 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Mitch Marner's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Mitch Marner's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Mitch Marner win tonight?
When Mitch Marner has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Mitch Marner better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.