Draw Duel
Collin Graf faceoff stats, 2025-26
SJS · R · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
—
Only 43 draws in the last four seasons: too few for a rating.
2025-26 FO%
29.2%
7 won of 24 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
33.3% / 25.0%
15 strong-side, 8 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.3 FOW
2026-10-05 vs DAL: 1 draws at 37.1%, range 0–1
Where Graf wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| OZ right | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| NZ left (att.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| NZ right (att.) | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| Centre | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| NZ right (def.) | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| DZ left | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| DZ right | 13 | 5 | 38.5% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R30.2%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L30.2%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R30.9%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L31.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L31.3%
- Jack Drury NSH · L31.3%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L50.5%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L50.2%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L49.0%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L47.3%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L46.9%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R46.8%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 42.9% 7 | — 0 | — 0 | 42.9% 7 | — 0 | 100.0% 1 | 33.3% 6 | 42.9% 7 | — 0 |
| 2025-26 | 29.2% 24 | 26.3% 19 | 0.0% 1 | 50.0% 4 | 14.3% 7 | 16.7% 6 | 45.5% 11 | 33.3% 15 | 25.0% 8 |
| 2024-25 | 33.3% 12 | 37.5% 8 | 50.0% 2 | 0.0% 2 | 60.0% 5 | 33.3% 3 | 0.0% 4 | 37.5% 8 | 25.0% 4 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksander Barkov | 1–1 | 50.0% | 33.9% | 34.0% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Morgan Geekie | 0–2 | 0.0% | 37.3% | 37.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Colton Sissons | 0–2 | 0.0% | 40.4% | 40.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| John Tavares | 1–1 | 50.0% | 34.3% | 34.3% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Quinton Byfield | 1–1 | 50.0% | 42.4% | 42.4% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 0–2 | 0.0% | 30.9% | 30.7% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Bo Horvat | 0–1 | 0.0% | 33.5% | 33.4% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Pavel Zacha | 0–1 | 0.0% | 36.6% | 36.6% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| J.T. Miller | 0–1 | 0.0% | 31.2% | 31.1% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Phillip Danault | 1–0 | 100.0% | 33.6% | 33.7% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Arseny Gritsyuk | 0–1 | 0.0% | 49.5% | 49.4% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Morgan Frost | 1–0 | 100.0% | 36.1% | 36.2% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs LAK | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs FLA | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs TOR | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-26 | @ STL | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-19 | vs BUF | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-14 | @ MTL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-07 | vs NYI | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-01 | vs WPG | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-02-04 | @ COL | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-02-02 | @ CHI | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs DAL likely opponents: Wyatt Johnston (42%), Roope Hintz (35%)0.3 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-08 vs STL likely opponents: Robert Thomas (37%), Mason McTavish (38%)0.3 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-10 vs EDM likely opponents: Leon Draisaitl (35%), Owen Michaels (50%)0.3 FOW 0–1
FAQ
What is Collin Graf's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Collin Graf's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Collin Graf win tonight?
When Collin Graf has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Collin Graf better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.