Draw Duel
Drew O'Connor faceoff stats, 2025-26
VAN · L · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
47.2%
90%: 43.0%–51.4% vs an average regular, on 276 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
48.6%
54 won of 111 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
53.0% / 35.7%
66 strong-side, 28 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.4 FOW
2026-10-04 vs VGK: 1 draws at 48.4%, range 0–1
Where O'Connor wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 40 | 18 | 45.0% |
| OZ right | 14 | 3 | 21.4% |
| NZ left (att.) | 9 | 8 | 88.9% |
| NZ right (att.) | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| Centre | 17 | 9 | 52.9% |
| NZ left (def.) | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| DZ left | 9 | 5 | 55.6% |
| DZ right | 9 | 6 | 66.7% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R38.6%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L39.2%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R39.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R40.1%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L40.2%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L40.4%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L60.0%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L59.7%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L58.7%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L56.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L56.6%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R56.5%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 80.0% 5 | 50.0% 2 | — 0 | 100.0% 3 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 100.0% 4 | — 0 | 80.0% 5 |
| 2025-26 | 48.6% 111 | 46.6% 88 | 45.5% 11 | 66.7% 12 | 38.9% 54 | 60.5% 43 | 50.0% 14 | 53.0% 66 | 35.7% 28 |
| 2024-25 | 41.7% 115 | 42.4% 92 | 33.3% 3 | 40.0% 20 | 32.4% 34 | 46.3% 41 | 45.0% 40 | 45.6% 68 | 32.4% 34 |
| 2023-24 | 46.7% 45 | 42.1% 38 | 66.7% 3 | 75.0% 4 | 50.0% 26 | 40.0% 15 | 50.0% 4 | 53.3% 15 | 47.8% 23 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Monahan | 2–5 | 28.6% | 43.3% | 43.1% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| J.T. Compher | 5–2 | 71.4% | 48.9% | 49.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Macklin Celebrini | 2–4 | 33.3% | 48.6% | 48.4% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Alexander Wennberg | 2–3 | 40.0% | 45.7% | 45.6% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Shane Wright | 2–2 | 50.0% | 55.9% | 55.9% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Vladislav Namestnikov | 4–0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Nico Hischier | 0–4 | 0.0% | 51.0% | 50.6% | unusual (z -2.0) |
| Leo Carlsson | 2–1 | 66.7% | 61.2% | 61.2% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Conor Geekie | 1–2 | 33.3% | 45.1% | 45.0% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Danila Yurov | 0–3 | 0.0% | 56.6% | 56.2% | a bit unusual (z -2.0) |
| Logan Cooley | 2–1 | 66.7% | 56.2% | 56.3% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Gabriel Vilardi | 0–3 | 0.0% | 49.7% | 49.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.7) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs CGY | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs EDM | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ EDM | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs VGK | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs UTA | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ COL | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-28 | @ CGY | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-26 | vs LAK | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-24 | vs ANA | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-17 | vs FLA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs VGK likely opponents: Jack Eichel (51%), William Karlsson (47%)0.4 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-08 vs CAR likely opponents: Jordan Staal (42%), Sebastian Aho (47%)0.4 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-10 vs NJD likely opponents: Nico Hischier (44%), Evan Rodrigues (50%)0.4 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-11 vs NYR likely opponents: J.T. Miller (41%), Mika Zibanejad (45%)0.4 FOW 0–1
FAQ
What is Drew O'Connor's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Drew O'Connor's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Drew O'Connor win tonight?
When Drew O'Connor has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Drew O'Connor better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.