Draw Duel
Eetu Luostarinen faceoff stats, 2025-26
FLA · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
46.9%
90%: 43.5%–50.4% vs an average regular, on 560 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
44.6%
111 won of 249 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
54.5% / 37.9%
123 strong-side, 66 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.5 FOW
2026-10-04 vs ANA: 9 draws at 49.7%, range 1–7
Where Luostarinen wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 66 | 36 | 54.5% |
| OZ right | 16 | 6 | 37.5% |
| NZ left (att.) | 14 | 11 | 78.6% |
| NZ right (att.) | 10 | 4 | 40.0% |
| Centre | 60 | 19 | 31.7% |
| NZ left (def.) | 10 | 4 | 40.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| DZ left | 33 | 16 | 48.5% |
| DZ right | 38 | 15 | 39.5% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R38.3%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L39.0%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R39.3%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R39.8%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L40.0%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L40.2%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L59.7%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L59.4%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L58.3%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L56.6%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L56.3%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R56.2%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 0.0% 2 | 0.0% 2 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 2 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 |
| 2025-26 | 44.6% 249 | 46.9% 196 | 37.0% 27 | 34.6% 26 | 51.2% 82 | 39.6% 96 | 43.7% 71 | 54.5% 123 | 37.9% 66 |
| 2024-25 | 45.2% 73 | 46.6% 58 | 50.0% 4 | 36.4% 11 | 37.5% 32 | 53.6% 28 | 46.2% 13 | 54.8% 31 | 33.3% 33 |
| 2023-24 | 53.6% 179 | 53.6% 153 | 45.5% 11 | 60.0% 15 | 50.0% 82 | 58.0% 50 | 55.3% 47 | 58.4% 101 | 39.6% 48 |
| Playoffs (all) | 43.9% 57 | 46.3% 54 | — 0 | 0.0% 3 | 34.6% 26 | 57.1% 14 | 47.1% 17 | 47.5% 40 | 33.3% 12 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Miller | 6–10 | 37.5% | 39.3% | 39.3% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Sidney Crosby | 10–6 | 62.5% | 41.2% | 41.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.7) |
| John Tavares | 8–8 | 50.0% | 39.8% | 40.2% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Bo Horvat | 4–8 | 33.3% | 46.1% | 45.8% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Nick Suzuki | 4–5 | 44.4% | 46.8% | 46.7% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Fraser Minten | 3–5 | 37.5% | 47.6% | 47.5% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Auston Matthews | 1–7 | 12.5% | 39.2% | 38.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.5) |
| Brayden Schenn | 5–3 | 62.5% | 52.5% | 52.6% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Rickard Rakell | 6–1 | 85.7% | 56.3% | 56.7% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 3–4 | 42.9% | 39.5% | 39.6% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Claude Giroux | 2–5 | 28.6% | 37.7% | 37.5% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Max Domi | 2–5 | 28.6% | 47.2% | 46.9% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | @ CAR | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-15 | vs DET | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-13 | vs NYR | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ TOR | 6 | 19 | 31.6% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ OTT | 8 | 17 | 47.1% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ MTL | 7 | 16 | 43.8% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ PIT | 10 | 15 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ PIT | 10 | 17 | 58.8% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs BOS | 3 | 13 | 23.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs OTT | 6 | 13 | 46.2% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs ANA likely opponents: Tim Washe (43%), Mikael Granlund (50%)4.5 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-06 vs LAK likely opponents: Quinton Byfield (53%), Erik Haula (49%)4.5 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-10 vs MIN likely opponents: Joel Eriksson Ek (52%), Ryan Hartman (52%)4.7 FOW 2–8
FAQ
What is Eetu Luostarinen's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Eetu Luostarinen's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Eetu Luostarinen win tonight?
When Eetu Luostarinen has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Eetu Luostarinen better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.