Draw Duel
Jonathan Marchessault faceoff stats, 2025-26
NSH · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
36.8%
90%: 31.6%–42.4% vs an average regular, on 139 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
41.9%
18 won of 43 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
52.2% / 23.1%
23 strong-side, 13 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.2 FOW
2026-10-06 vs TOR: 1 draws at 33.1%, range 0–1
Where Marchessault wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 11 | 2 | 18.2% |
| OZ right | 20 | 9 | 45.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| Centre | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
| NZ left (def.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| NZ right (def.) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| DZ left | 0 | 0 | — |
| DZ right | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Aatu Räty VAN · L29.5%
- Claude Giroux OTT · R29.5%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R30.2%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L30.4%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L30.6%
- Jack Drury NSH · L30.6%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L49.7%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L49.3%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L48.2%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L46.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L46.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R46.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 |
| 2025-26 | 41.9% 43 | 40.0% 40 | 66.7% 3 | — 0 | 36.7% 30 | 50.0% 12 | 100.0% 1 | 52.2% 23 | 23.1% 13 |
| 2024-25 | 25.4% 67 | 25.4% 63 | 25.0% 4 | — 0 | 21.4% 42 | 35.7% 14 | 27.3% 11 | 23.7% 38 | 26.1% 23 |
| 2023-24 | 25.0% 24 | 20.0% 20 | 50.0% 4 | — 0 | 25.0% 16 | 50.0% 4 | 0.0% 4 | 13.3% 15 | 42.9% 7 |
| Playoffs (all) | 50.0% 4 | 50.0% 4 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 50.0% 2 | 100.0% 1 | 50.0% 2 | 50.0% 2 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mittelstadt | 1–3 | 25.0% | 41.4% | 41.3% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Christian Dvorak | 0–3 | 0.0% | 33.0% | 32.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Jason Dickinson | 0–3 | 0.0% | 36.4% | 36.1% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Sam Bennett | 3–0 | 100.0% | 40.9% | 41.2% | unusual (z 2.1) |
| Brock Nelson | 1–2 | 33.3% | 36.8% | 36.8% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Brayden Schenn | 0–3 | 0.0% | 34.7% | 34.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Cody Glass | 1–1 | 50.0% | 40.5% | 40.5% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Jiri Kulich | 1–1 | 50.0% | 41.7% | 41.7% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Jack Hughes | 1–1 | 50.0% | 48.7% | 48.8% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Dylan Strome | 0–2 | 0.0% | 33.5% | 33.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
| Colton Sissons | 0–2 | 0.0% | 27.0% | 26.9% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 0–2 | 0.0% | 30.0% | 29.9% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs DAL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-13 | vs SJS | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs MIN | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ UTA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-06 | @ LAK | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ SJS | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ LAK | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-28 | vs MTL | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-26 | vs NJD | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2026-03-22 | @ CHI | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs TOR likely opponents: John Tavares (31%), Auston Matthews (30%)0.2 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-08 vs MTL likely opponents: Nick Suzuki (37%), Phillip Danault (34%)0.3 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-10 vs OTT likely opponents: Claude Giroux (31%), Lars Eller (35%)0.3 FOW 0–1
FAQ
What is Jonathan Marchessault's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Jonathan Marchessault's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Jonathan Marchessault win tonight?
When Jonathan Marchessault has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Jonathan Marchessault better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.