Draw Duel
Justin Danforth faceoff stats, 2025-26
BUF · R · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
49.4%
90%: 46.2%–52.5% vs an average regular, on 1,049 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
54.8%
17 won of 31 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
51.9% / 50.0%
27 strong-side, 2 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Danforth wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 and 2024-25 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 46 | 24 | 52.2% |
| OZ right | 112 | 62 | 55.4% |
| NZ left (att.) | 15 | 8 | 53.3% |
| NZ right (att.) | 24 | 15 | 62.5% |
| Centre | 134 | 65 | 48.5% |
| NZ left (def.) | 19 | 13 | 68.4% |
| NZ right (def.) | 22 | 12 | 54.5% |
| DZ left | 77 | 31 | 40.3% |
| DZ right | 243 | 114 | 46.9% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R40.8%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L41.1%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R41.8%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L42.2%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R42.3%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L42.4%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L62.2%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L61.9%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L60.8%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L59.1%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L58.8%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R58.6%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 54.8% 31 | 78.9% 19 | 100.0% 1 | 9.1% 11 | 63.6% 11 | 60.0% 5 | 46.7% 15 | 51.9% 27 | 50.0% 2 |
| 2024-25 | 49.5% 661 | 50.5% 546 | 50.0% 14 | 43.6% 101 | 53.7% 147 | 52.6% 209 | 45.2% 305 | 50.5% 374 | 48.4% 155 |
| 2023-24 | 48.5% 357 | 51.2% 281 | 55.6% 9 | 35.8% 67 | 51.4% 107 | 50.6% 77 | 45.7% 173 | 47.7% 262 | 49.1% 53 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hischier | 17–11 | 60.7% | 43.4% | 44.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.8) |
| Anze Kopitar | 9–12 | 42.9% | 43.2% | 43.2% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| J.T. Miller | 6–14 | 30.0% | 42.8% | 42.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 10–9 | 52.6% | 49.8% | 50.0% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Sidney Crosby | 8–11 | 42.1% | 45.7% | 45.6% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Auston Matthews | 9–9 | 50.0% | 42.8% | 43.0% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| John Tavares | 10–7 | 58.8% | 45.2% | 45.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Aleksander Barkov | 7–10 | 41.2% | 44.4% | 44.3% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 3–11 | 21.4% | 46.1% | 45.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.9) |
| Adam Lowry | 5–9 | 35.7% | 46.1% | 45.8% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Nick Paul | 12–2 | 85.7% | 47.3% | 48.3% | unusual (z 2.9) |
| Bo Horvat | 5–8 | 38.5% | 44.2% | 44.0% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-15 | vs OTT | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2025-10-13 | vs COL | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |
| 2025-10-11 | @ BOS | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| 2025-10-09 | vs NYR | 5 | 10 | 50.0% |
| 2025-04-17 | vs NYI | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-15 | @ PHI | 6 | 8 | 75.0% |
| 2025-04-13 | @ WSH | 4 | 12 | 33.3% |
| 2025-04-12 | vs WSH | 7 | 9 | 77.8% |
| 2025-04-10 | vs BUF | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |
| 2025-04-08 | vs OTT | 5 | 6 | 83.3% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Justin Danforth's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Justin Danforth's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Justin Danforth win tonight?
When Justin Danforth has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Justin Danforth better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.