Draw Duel
Linus Karlsson faceoff stats, 2025-26
VAN · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
35.6%
90%: 30.2%–41.4% vs an average regular, on 71 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
29.4%
15 won of 51 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
30.2% / 50.0%
43 strong-side, 4 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.5 FOW
2026-10-04 vs VGK: 1 draws at 36.3%, range 0–1
Where Karlsson wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| OZ right | 27 | 11 | 40.7% |
| NZ left (att.) | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| NZ right (att.) | 9 | 2 | 22.2% |
| Centre | 7 | 2 | 28.6% |
| NZ left (def.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| NZ right (def.) | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| DZ left | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| DZ right | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R28.4%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L28.4%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R29.1%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L29.3%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L29.5%
- Jack Drury NSH · L29.5%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L48.3%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L48.0%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L46.8%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L45.1%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L44.8%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R44.7%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 50.0% 6 | 66.7% 3 | 33.3% 3 | — 0 | 100.0% 1 | 50.0% 4 | 0.0% 1 | 50.0% 2 | 0.0% 1 |
| 2025-26 | 29.4% 51 | 27.8% 36 | 33.3% 15 | — 0 | 37.0% 27 | 17.6% 17 | 28.6% 7 | 30.2% 43 | 50.0% 4 |
| 2024-25 | 20.0% 5 | 25.0% 4 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 25.0% 4 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 50.0% 2 | 0.0% 3 |
| 2023-24 | 22.2% 9 | 33.3% 6 | 0.0% 3 | — 0 | 20.0% 5 | 0.0% 1 | 33.3% 3 | 16.7% 6 | 33.3% 3 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anze Kopitar | 1–3 | 25.0% | 29.4% | 29.4% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Noah Laba | 0–2 | 0.0% | 43.2% | 43.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Matty Beniers | 1–1 | 50.0% | 38.3% | 38.3% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Blake Lizotte | 0–2 | 0.0% | 36.7% | 36.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Sean Couturier | 1–1 | 50.0% | 29.7% | 29.7% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Tomas Hertl | 1–1 | 50.0% | 29.1% | 29.2% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Pavel Zacha | 0–2 | 0.0% | 33.2% | 33.1% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Brock Nelson | 1–1 | 50.0% | 36.4% | 36.4% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Connor McDavid | 1–1 | 50.0% | 36.9% | 36.9% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Radek Faksa | 1–1 | 50.0% | 31.3% | 31.3% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Cole Schwindt | 0–1 | 0.0% | 33.2% | 33.1% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Justin Sourdif | 0–1 | 0.0% | 44.6% | 44.5% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs CGY | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs EDM | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ EDM | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-14 | vs LAK | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-12 | @ ANA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ SJS | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs VGK | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs UTA | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-28 | @ CGY | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-26 | vs LAK | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs VGK likely opponents: Jack Eichel (40%), William Karlsson (33%)0.5 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-08 vs CAR likely opponents: Jordan Staal (29%), Sebastian Aho (34%)0.4 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-10 vs NJD likely opponents: Nico Hischier (30%), Evan Rodrigues (41%)0.5 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-11 vs NYR likely opponents: J.T. Miller (29%), Mika Zibanejad (35%)0.4 FOW 0–1
FAQ
What is Linus Karlsson's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Linus Karlsson's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Linus Karlsson win tonight?
When Linus Karlsson has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Linus Karlsson better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.