Draw Duel
Max Sasson faceoff stats, 2025-26
VAN · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
43.5%
90%: 40.1%–46.9% vs an average regular, on 426 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
42.1%
122 won of 290 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
47.9% / 38.2%
121 strong-side, 89 weak-side draws this season
Next game
2.9 FOW
2026-10-04 vs VGK: 6 draws at 44.8%, range 0–5
Where Sasson wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 62 | 30 | 48.4% |
| OZ right | 27 | 11 | 40.7% |
| NZ left (att.) | 16 | 11 | 68.8% |
| NZ right (att.) | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
| Centre | 80 | 30 | 37.5% |
| NZ left (def.) | 17 | 4 | 23.5% |
| NZ right (def.) | 12 | 4 | 33.3% |
| DZ left | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| DZ right | 44 | 18 | 40.9% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R35.1%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L35.8%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R36.1%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R36.6%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L36.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L36.9%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L56.4%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L56.1%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L55.0%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L53.3%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L53.0%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R52.8%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 42.3% 26 | 45.5% 22 | — 0 | 25.0% 4 | 66.7% 3 | 53.8% 13 | 20.0% 10 | 33.3% 6 | 33.3% 9 |
| 2025-26 | 42.1% 290 | 41.9% 270 | 47.4% 19 | 0.0% 1 | 46.1% 89 | 38.2% 131 | 44.3% 70 | 47.9% 121 | 38.2% 89 |
| 2024-25 | 42.7% 110 | 43.5% 108 | — 0 | 0.0% 2 | 31.0% 29 | 48.0% 50 | 45.2% 31 | 47.5% 40 | 27.3% 33 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | 5–7 | 41.7% | 44.3% | 44.2% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Nicolas Roy | 4–7 | 36.4% | 45.7% | 45.5% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Yanni Gourde | 3–8 | 27.3% | 46.3% | 45.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Evan Rodrigues | 5–2 | 71.4% | 46.6% | 46.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Ryan McLeod | 4–3 | 57.1% | 46.4% | 46.5% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Ty Dellandrea | 3–4 | 42.9% | 42.6% | 42.6% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Phillip Danault | 6–1 | 85.7% | 39.1% | 39.7% | unusual (z 2.5) |
| Adam Henrique | 2–5 | 28.6% | 39.5% | 39.4% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| William Karlsson | 2–4 | 33.3% | 38.4% | 38.3% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Jack McBain | 1–5 | 16.7% | 47.0% | 46.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.5) |
| Jack Drury | 2–4 | 33.3% | 36.0% | 36.0% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Lars Eller | 2–4 | 33.3% | 40.1% | 40.0% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs CGY | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs EDM | 5 | 8 | 62.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ EDM | 4 | 14 | 28.6% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs VGK | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs UTA | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ MIN | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ COL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-17 | vs FLA | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-09 | vs OTT | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-04 | vs CAR | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs VGK likely opponents: Jack Eichel (47%), William Karlsson (43%)2.9 FOW 0–5
- 2026-10-08 vs CAR likely opponents: Jordan Staal (38%), Sebastian Aho (43%)2.8 FOW 0–5
- 2026-10-10 vs NJD likely opponents: Nico Hischier (40%), Evan Rodrigues (46%)2.8 FOW 0–5
- 2026-10-11 vs NYR likely opponents: J.T. Miller (37%), Mika Zibanejad (41%)2.6 FOW 0–5
FAQ
What is Max Sasson's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Max Sasson's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Max Sasson win tonight?
When Max Sasson has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Max Sasson better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.