Draw Duel
Paul Cotter faceoff stats, 2025-26
VAN · L · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
48.3%
90%: 44.3%–52.3% vs an average regular, on 296 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
51.5%
68 won of 132 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
50.6% / 42.9%
83 strong-side, 28 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.8 FOW
2026-10-04 vs VGK: 10 draws at 49.2%, range 2–8
Where Cotter wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 52 | 21 | 40.4% |
| OZ right | 20 | 8 | 40.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 5 | 4 | 80.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| Centre | 30 | 19 | 63.3% |
| NZ left (def.) | 8 | 5 | 62.5% |
| NZ right (def.) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| DZ left | 26 | 16 | 61.5% |
| DZ right | 20 | 7 | 35.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R39.6%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L40.3%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R40.7%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R41.2%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L41.3%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L41.5%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L61.1%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L60.8%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L59.7%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L58.0%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L57.7%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R57.6%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 43.8% 32 | 38.5% 26 | — 0 | 66.7% 6 | 0.0% 4 | 58.3% 12 | 43.8% 16 | 50.0% 8 | 33.3% 15 |
| 2025-26 | 51.5% 132 | 51.5% 130 | 0.0% 1 | 100.0% 1 | 42.6% 68 | 67.6% 34 | 53.3% 30 | 50.6% 83 | 42.9% 28 |
| 2024-25 | 52.6% 78 | 51.4% 70 | 62.5% 8 | — 0 | 43.2% 37 | 65.5% 29 | 50.0% 12 | 55.8% 52 | 18.2% 11 |
| 2023-24 | 49.1% 53 | 49.0% 49 | 50.0% 4 | — 0 | 38.5% 26 | 55.6% 18 | 66.7% 9 | 51.2% 41 | 0.0% 3 |
| Playoffs (all) | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | 7–2 | 77.8% | 45.9% | 46.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.9) |
| David Kampf | 7–2 | 77.8% | 51.4% | 51.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Mikael Backlund | 1–5 | 16.7% | 41.9% | 41.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Dylan Strome | 3–3 | 50.0% | 41.3% | 41.4% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Owen Michaels | 3–2 | 60.0% | 57.7% | 57.7% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Nick Suzuki | 1–4 | 20.0% | 46.8% | 46.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Connor McDavid | 2–3 | 40.0% | 50.8% | 50.7% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Colton Dach | 1–3 | 25.0% | 57.1% | 56.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Shane Pinto | 4–0 | 100.0% | 46.7% | 47.2% | unusual (z 2.1) |
| John Beecher | 3–1 | 75.0% | 51.6% | 51.8% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Mark Jankowski | 1–3 | 25.0% | 51.4% | 51.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Mika Zibanejad | 3–1 | 75.0% | 46.1% | 46.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs CGY | 2 | 10 | 20.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs EDM | 9 | 14 | 64.3% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ EDM | 3 | 8 | 37.5% |
| 2026-04-14 | @ BOS | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-12 | vs OTT | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ DET | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs PIT | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs PHI | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs WSH | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ NYR | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs VGK likely opponents: Jack Eichel (52%), William Karlsson (47%)4.8 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-08 vs CAR likely opponents: Jordan Staal (42%), Sebastian Aho (48%)4.7 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-10 vs NJD likely opponents: Nico Hischier (44%), Evan Rodrigues (51%)4.8 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-11 vs NYR likely opponents: J.T. Miller (41%), Mika Zibanejad (46%)4.5 FOW 1–8
FAQ
What is Paul Cotter's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Paul Cotter's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Paul Cotter win tonight?
When Paul Cotter has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Paul Cotter better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.