Edgehalla

Draw Duel

Tanner Pearson faceoff stats, 2025-26

BUF · L · Left shot · full player page

Model rating

34.8%

90%: 29.2%–40.9% vs an average regular, on 71 draws since 2023-24

2025-26 FO%

20.0%

4 won of 20 (regular season)

Strong / weak side

18.2% / 16.7%

11 strong-side, 6 weak-side draws this season

Next game

No projection scheduled.

Where Pearson wins draws

Win % at every dot, 2025-26 and 2024-25 regular season, in his own attacking direction.

8% · 13— · 5— · 6— · 120% · 10— · 2— · 5— · 2
Offensive zone at the right, his left at the top. Warm = above 50%, cool = below; bigger circles = more draws. Hollow circles have under 10 draws.
Show as a table
Tanner Pearson faceoff win % by dot
DotDrawsWonFO%
OZ left1317.7%
OZ right5360.0%
NZ left (att.)6350.0%
NZ right (att.)100.0%
Centre10220.0%
NZ left (def.)00—
NZ right (def.)200.0%
DZ left5120.0%
DZ right200.0%

Toughest and easiest opponents

Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.

Toughest

Easiest

Splits by season

Faceoff win % by season and situation, with draws taken.
SeasonAllEVPPPKOZNZDZStrongWeak
2025-2620.0% 2016.7% 18— 050.0% 225.0% 825.0% 80.0% 418.2% 1116.7% 6
2024-2525.0% 2426.1% 23— 00.0% 120.0% 1027.3% 1133.3% 323.1% 1350.0% 4
2023-2422.7% 2217.6% 1750.0% 40.0% 118.2% 1122.2% 950.0% 27.1% 1450.0% 6
Playoffs (all)60.0% 560.0% 5— 0— 050.0% 266.7% 3— 075.0% 40.0% 1

Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.

Head-to-head, last three seasons

Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.

Head-to-head faceoff records with model expectation and shrunk estimate.
OpponentRecordRawModelBlendedUnusual?
Tommy Novak1–233.3%40.1%40.1%normal luck (z -0.2)
Mavrik Bourque0–30.0%38.7%38.5%a bit unusual (z -1.4)
J.T. Compher0–30.0%36.5%36.3%a bit unusual (z -1.3)
Marco Rossi1–233.3%35.8%35.8%normal luck (z -0.1)
Yakov Trenin1–150.0%44.6%44.6%normal luck (z 0.2)
Lukas Reichel1–150.0%38.8%38.9%normal luck (z 0.3)
Dawson Mercer0–20.0%41.4%41.2%a bit unusual (z -1.2)
Sam Carrick1–150.0%31.2%31.3%normal luck (z 0.6)
Adam Henrique1–150.0%35.1%35.1%normal luck (z 0.4)
Nathan MacKinnon0–10.0%35.4%35.4%normal luck (z -0.7)
Elias Lindholm0–10.0%28.0%28.0%normal luck (z -0.6)
Dylan Larkin0–10.0%36.3%36.2%normal luck (z -0.8)

Last 10 games

Faceoffs taken and won in his last ten games.
DateOppFOWDrawsFO%
2026-03-03vs CHI010.0%
2026-03-01@ SJS010.0%
2026-01-24vs DET020.0%
2026-01-15@ MIN010.0%
2026-01-13vs NYI020.0%
2026-01-11vs NJD020.0%
2026-01-03@ OTT010.0%
2025-12-19@ COL11100.0%
2025-12-09vs DAL020.0%
2025-11-26@ WSH010.0%

Projected faceoffs won

No upcoming games projected.

FAQ

What is Tanner Pearson's faceoff percentage?

The season line above shows Tanner Pearson's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.

How many faceoffs will Tanner Pearson win tonight?

When Tanner Pearson has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.

Is Tanner Pearson better on his strong side?

Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.