Edgehalla

Draw Duel

Dawson Mercer faceoff stats, 2025-26

NJD · C · Right shot · full player page

Model rating

41.9%

90%: 38.9%–45.0% vs an average regular, on 823 draws since 2023-24

2025-26 FO%

38.9%

114 won of 293 (regular season)

Strong / weak side

33.5% / 43.0%

161 strong-side, 79 weak-side draws this season

Next game

No projection scheduled.

Where Mercer wins draws

Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.

53% · 3035% · 92— · 727% · 1149% · 5341% · 1730% · 1040% · 2533% · 48
Offensive zone at the right, his left at the top. Warm = above 50%, cool = below; bigger circles = more draws. Hollow circles have under 10 draws.
Show as a table
Dawson Mercer faceoff win % by dot
DotDrawsWonFO%
OZ left301653.3%
OZ right923234.8%
NZ left (att.)7114.3%
NZ right (att.)11327.3%
Centre532649.1%
NZ left (def.)17741.2%
NZ right (def.)10330.0%
DZ left251040.0%
DZ right481633.3%

Toughest and easiest opponents

Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.

Toughest

Easiest

Splits by season

Faceoff win % by season and situation, with draws taken.
SeasonAllEVPPPKOZNZDZStrongWeak
2025-2638.9% 29338.8% 26331.6% 1954.5% 1139.3% 12240.8% 9835.6% 7333.5% 16143.0% 79
2024-2540.5% 23741.0% 21235.7% 1436.4% 1138.3% 8145.2% 9336.5% 6337.0% 15441.9% 31
2023-2444.9% 26543.6% 24150.0% 1470.0% 1038.3% 12051.2% 8249.2% 6346.2% 17133.3% 45
Playoffs (all)28.6% 2829.6% 27— 00.0% 127.3% 1142.9% 720.0% 1021.1% 1933.3% 3

Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.

Head-to-head, last three seasons

Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.

Head-to-head faceoff records with model expectation and shrunk estimate.
OpponentRecordRawModelBlendedUnusual?
Noah Cates16–672.7%45.9%47.0%unusual (z 2.5)
Sebastian Aho2–1611.1%38.7%37.8%unusual (z -2.4)
Morgan Frost9–756.3%39.1%39.7%a bit unusual (z 1.4)
Casey Cizikas8–850.0%37.1%37.5%a bit unusual (z 1.1)
Ryan McLeod5–1033.3%41.7%41.5%normal luck (z -0.7)
Sean Couturier7–846.7%35.7%36.0%normal luck (z 0.9)
Christian Dvorak5–935.7%37.3%37.2%normal luck (z -0.1)
Casey Mittelstadt6–746.2%44.6%44.6%normal luck (z 0.1)
Ryan Hartman7–653.8%43.6%43.9%normal luck (z 0.7)
Dylan Cozens6–746.2%41.9%42.0%normal luck (z 0.3)
Sidney Crosby4–833.3%37.3%37.2%normal luck (z -0.3)
Jesperi Kotkaniemi7–463.6%40.7%41.2%a bit unusual (z 1.6)

Last 10 games

Faceoffs taken and won in his last ten games.
DateOppFOWDrawsFO%
2026-04-07vs PHI010.0%
2026-04-04vs MTL010.0%
2026-03-29vs CHI11100.0%
2026-03-18@ NYR020.0%
2026-03-14vs LAK11100.0%
2026-03-12vs CGY11100.0%
2026-03-07vs NYR010.0%
2026-03-04vs TOR030.0%
2026-03-03vs FLA2450.0%
2026-02-05vs NYI3560.0%

Projected faceoffs won

No upcoming games projected.

FAQ

What is Dawson Mercer's faceoff percentage?

The season line above shows Dawson Mercer's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.

How many faceoffs will Dawson Mercer win tonight?

When Dawson Mercer has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.

Is Dawson Mercer better on his strong side?

Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.