Draw Duel
Mavrik Bourque faceoff stats, 2025-26
NSH · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
44.7%
90%: 41.6%–47.9% vs an average regular, on 667 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
45.3%
107 won of 236 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
49.7% / 20.0%
157 strong-side, 10 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.0 FOW
2026-10-06 vs TOR: 10 draws at 40.6%, range 1–7
Where Bourque wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| OZ right | 57 | 24 | 42.1% |
| NZ left (att.) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 21 | 13 | 61.9% |
| Centre | 69 | 27 | 39.1% |
| NZ left (def.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| NZ right (def.) | 8 | 6 | 75.0% |
| DZ left | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| DZ right | 71 | 35 | 49.3% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R36.5%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L36.7%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R37.4%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L37.7%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R37.9%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L37.9%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L57.8%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L57.4%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L56.3%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L54.6%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L54.3%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R54.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 63.2% 19 | 53.3% 15 | 100.0% 3 | 100.0% 1 | 33.3% 9 | 80.0% 5 | 100.0% 5 | 50.0% 10 | 66.7% 6 |
| 2025-26 | 45.3% 236 | 46.9% 211 | 27.8% 18 | 42.9% 7 | 39.3% 61 | 46.5% 99 | 48.7% 76 | 49.7% 157 | 20.0% 10 |
| 2024-25 | 46.3% 348 | 46.7% 321 | 33.3% 6 | 42.9% 21 | 45.0% 80 | 46.6% 118 | 46.7% 150 | 46.8% 252 | 31.6% 19 |
| 2023-24 | 33.3% 6 | 33.3% 6 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 2 | 100.0% 2 | 0.0% 2 | 0.0% 3 | 0.0% 1 |
| Playoffs (all) | 39.7% 58 | 38.2% 55 | 66.7% 3 | — 0 | 31.3% 16 | 50.0% 28 | 28.6% 14 | 34.1% 41 | 0.0% 1 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 7–14 | 33.3% | 45.2% | 44.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Ryan Hartman | 8–9 | 47.1% | 50.3% | 50.2% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Michael McCarron | 7–8 | 46.7% | 45.3% | 45.3% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Barrett Hayton | 4–9 | 30.8% | 44.6% | 44.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
| Brock Nelson | 9–4 | 69.2% | 45.8% | 46.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.7) |
| Jack Drury | 3–7 | 30.0% | 37.3% | 37.1% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Adam Fantilli | 4–5 | 44.4% | 47.2% | 47.2% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Mikael Backlund | 4–5 | 44.4% | 43.6% | 43.6% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Morgan Frost | 4–5 | 44.4% | 42.5% | 42.6% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Auston Matthews | 3–6 | 33.3% | 38.2% | 38.1% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Fedor Svechkov | 4–4 | 50.0% | 54.0% | 53.9% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Elias Lindholm | 5–2 | 71.4% | 42.7% | 43.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs DAL | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs MIN | 6 | 9 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-30 | @ MIN | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
| 2026-04-28 | vs MIN | 4 | 12 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-25 | @ MIN | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
| 2026-04-22 | @ MIN | 5 | 11 | 45.5% |
| 2026-04-20 | vs MIN | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
| 2026-04-18 | vs MIN | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-15 | @ BUF | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-13 | @ TOR | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs TOR likely opponents: John Tavares (38%), Auston Matthews (38%)4.0 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-08 vs MTL likely opponents: Nick Suzuki (45%), Phillip Danault (41%)4.4 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-10 vs OTT likely opponents: Claude Giroux (38%), Lars Eller (43%)4.4 FOW 1–7
FAQ
What is Mavrik Bourque's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Mavrik Bourque's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Mavrik Bourque win tonight?
When Mavrik Bourque has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Mavrik Bourque better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.