Draw Duel
Tom Wilson faceoff stats, 2025-26
WSH · R · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
40.0%
90%: 34.4%–45.9% vs an average regular, on 124 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
44.7%
17 won of 38 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
44.8% / 42.9%
29 strong-side, 7 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Wilson wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| OZ right | 11 | 6 | 54.5% |
| NZ left (att.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| NZ right (att.) | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Centre | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| NZ right (def.) | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| DZ left | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| DZ right | 15 | 6 | 40.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R32.3%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L32.3%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R33.1%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L33.3%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L33.5%
- Jack Drury NSH · L33.5%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L53.0%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L52.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L51.5%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L49.7%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L49.4%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R49.3%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 |
| 2025-26 | 44.7% 38 | 41.7% 12 | 60.0% 10 | 37.5% 16 | 47.1% 17 | 40.0% 5 | 43.8% 16 | 44.8% 29 | 42.9% 7 |
| 2024-25 | 26.3% 19 | 36.4% 11 | 0.0% 1 | 14.3% 7 | 33.3% 9 | 16.7% 6 | 25.0% 4 | 18.2% 11 | 42.9% 7 |
| 2023-24 | 36.7% 60 | 28.0% 25 | 40.0% 5 | 43.3% 30 | 40.9% 22 | 0.0% 9 | 44.8% 29 | 42.9% 42 | 28.6% 14 |
| Playoffs (all) | 50.0% 6 | 100.0% 2 | 25.0% 4 | — 0 | 25.0% 4 | 100.0% 2 | — 0 | 66.7% 3 | 33.3% 3 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho | 4–0 | 100.0% | 38.4% | 38.9% | unusual (z 2.5) |
| Nico Hischier | 2–1 | 66.7% | 35.2% | 35.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Tim Stützle | 0–2 | 0.0% | 41.5% | 41.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Nick Suzuki | 1–1 | 50.0% | 33.2% | 33.3% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Oliver Kapanen | 2–0 | 100.0% | 52.0% | 52.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Dylan Larkin | 0–2 | 0.0% | 37.1% | 37.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Bo Horvat | 1–1 | 50.0% | 34.8% | 34.9% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Noah Cates | 0–2 | 0.0% | 46.4% | 46.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Anton Lundell | 1–1 | 50.0% | 38.2% | 38.2% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 2–0 | 100.0% | 36.1% | 36.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.9) |
| Jordan Staal | 0–2 | 0.0% | 33.6% | 33.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
| Mikael Backlund | 2–0 | 100.0% | 38.0% | 38.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.8) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | @ CAR | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ NJD | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs PHI | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-24 | @ STL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-22 | vs COL | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-18 | vs OTT | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-14 | vs BOS | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-12 | @ BUF | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-11 | @ PHI | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-02-02 | vs NYI | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Tom Wilson's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Tom Wilson's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Tom Wilson win tonight?
When Tom Wilson has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Tom Wilson better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.